The power sector has done better than expected, in terms of the national demand-supply position. While increased generation did help the situation, it is the lowerthan- expected increase in power demand that came to the rescue, notes Dr. M.S. Kapadia.

The power sector seems to have fared better during the first quarter, compared to what Central Electricity Authority had projected in its Load Generation Balance Report (LGBR) for the current year. The improvement was due mainly to lower than expected increase in power demand. Power generation was up by 8.3 per cent during the quarter. Power availability was assessed better at 213 billion kwh, against 203 billion kwh factored in LGBR, while requirement of around 228 billion kwh fell short of 235 billion kwh, which culminated in a lower average deficit of around 6.6 per cent over the quarter, as compared to 14 per cent expected in LGBR. Likewise, peak power deficit was also lower at 9.2 per cent, compared to 15.7 per cent feared in LGBR.

The gross energy generation in the country has been assessed at 855 billion kwh for 2011-12 in LGBR, which has factored for this purpose power availability from various stations in operation including CPP and non-conventional energy, fuel availability, proposed maintenance schedule of the units, anticipated water availability at hydro electric stations, as also a capacity addition of 17,191 mw over the year, comprising 14,111 mw of thermal, 2080 mw of hydro and 1,000 mw of nuclear power. The first quarter has seen 3,509 mw of new capacity, one-fifth of the targeted addition over the year, comprising 2,970 mw of thermal and 539 mw of hydropower.

The country was to tackle average deficit of 10.3 per cent and a peak demand/availability deficit of around 12.9 per cent over the year, with 25 states likely to face normal deficit and 9 others surplus. Power requirement was expected to go up by around 8.4 per cent over the year and total ex-bus energy availability (i.e. energy dispatched by the generating station after internal consumption) by 6.2 per cent, which would imply a rather sharp worsening from 8.5 per cent average deficit and 9.8 per cent peak demand/availability deficit in 2010-11. The most consuming and producing Western region was assessed to face an average deficit of 11 per cent, northern region 10.9 per cent and southern region 10.5 per cent, whereas eastern region that requires 11 per cent of the energy would undergo a milder deficit of 7.7 per cent and north-eastern region a nominal deficit.

PROJECTION VS ACTUAL PERFORMANCE IN 2011-12 (Q1)
	Energy (MU)				Peak Power (MW)
	Projection		Actual		Projection		Actual
	Reqmt	Supply*	Reqmt	Supply*	Demand	Supply**	Demand	Supply**
Northern	70,420	63,078	66,976	63,932	116,800	99,890	37,651	34,575
Western	74,095	62,925	72,421	65,111	121,990	102,716	39,566	33,705
Southern	61,842	51,639	61,843	59,478	100,492	83,021	33,937	31,489
Eastern	26,192	23,106	23,787	22,752	45,755	38,428	14,000	12,879
North-Eastern	2,488	2,409	2,631	2,351	5,793	5,270	1,762	1,581
All India	235,035	203,157	227,658	212,628	390,825	329,323	122,391	111,163
*Indicates actual availability **Indicates peak demand met; Source: CEA

The country enjoyed much better power position during the first quarter for which the data are available, compared to the projection for the quarter. Average deficit for the nation worked out to 6.6 per cent, less than a half of the severity feared over the quarter. The actual provisional peaking demand/supply shortage was 9.2 per cent, against 14 per cent feared during the quarter. While the western region suffered 10 per cent deficit, against 15 per cent feared over the first quarter, northern region had to bear with only 4.5 per cent shortfall, half of the deficiency projected for the quarter.

STATE-WISE DETAILS
Maharashtra, the largest consuming state, was to face 18.9 per cent deficit, escalating from 16.6 per cent in 2010-11 and 18.7 per cent in 2009-10. The state's power requirement was projected to go down 3 per cent, whereas the availability was feared to deteriorate by a steeper 6 per cent. The power crunch in the state was expected to ease from around 23 per cent in H1 to 14 per cent in H2. In the meantime, the state suffered 15 per cent average deficit, less than 24 per cent projected for the quarter, due to slower pace in power requirement, relative to power availability.

Uttar Pradesh was projected to face a much worse 24 per cent deficit, compared to 15 per cent in 2010-11, due to a much faster increase in power requirement and a little lower power availability. The deficit was expected to be uniformly high across the months. However, the state faced 9 per cent deficit in Q1, about a third of that feared, due to better power availability on the one hand and a lower usage on thther. The deficit in Tamil Nadu was expected to worsen three times to 18 per cent due to 9 per cent increase in requirement, against a decline in availability. The state was to face double-digit shortfall throughout the year (barring 7 per cent in July), though during the first quarter it had to bear only 5 per cent shortfall, a fifth of that projected for the period. Andhra Pradesh was projected to face 12 per cent deficit, four times the level in 2010-11 as its power needs were expected to mount 12 per cent, while the availability was to rise only around 2 per cent. The state suffered 3 per cent average deficit, a fourth of the severity expected over the quarter. Gujarat would encounter only 2 per cent shortfall, improving from 5.7 per cent in 2010-11 following a double-digit improvement in power infrastructure. The state suffered only nominal shortfall during the first quarter, while it was expected to be power surplus during July-September. Karnataka was to be powersur plus due to 19 per cent improvement in power availability. Barring Q1 during which it suffered 5 per cent shortfall and the busy March, the state was assessed to have more power than it needed.

Power Deficit Projection: 2011-12
	Average		Peak
	Proj.	Actual	Proj.	Actual
Apr-11	17.5	8.0	17.6	10.4
May-11	11.9	6.5	16.0	8.9
Jun-11	11.2	5.3	13.6	9.2
Jul-11	6.3		9.2
Aug-11	5.6		8.7
Sep-11	5.5		7.8
Oct-11	10.1		9.2
Nov-11	8.4		6.7
Dec-11	11.5		9.2
Jan-12	10.6		10.2
Feb-12	10.6		11.0
Mar-12	14.0		12.9
Annual	10.3		12.9
Source: CEA

MONTH-WISE DETAILS
The average power deficit for the country was to fall from 17 per cent in April to 11-12 per cent in May-June and 5-6 per cent during the monsoon months July-September, but escalate to 11 per cent per month during the second half of the year; with a high of 14 per cent feared in March. Actual deficit was much lower at 8 per cent in April, 6.5 per cent in May and 5.3 per cent in June. As stated earlier, the lower average deficit was due to 3 per cent fall in power demand, coupled with around 4 per cent better power availability.

The hydro rich states like Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Uttarakhand that have run-of-river schemes on the Himalayan rivers are expected to be energy surplus during monsoon period, while they would face severe shortage conditions during the winter when the generation from hydro schemes dwindles to the minimum. The constituent states/UT of Delhi, Himachal Pradesh, Dadra & Nagar Haveli and Sikkim shall have both peaking and energy surplus on annual basis. Chhattisgarh, Karnataka, Puducherry, Mizoram and Tripura would be surplus in terms of energy whereas Orissa would be in comfortable position in terms of peak on annual basis.

METHODOLOGY
The exercise for anticipated power supply position in the country involves (a) assessment of power requirements in each State (month-wise) in terms of unrestricted energy requirement and peak demand and (b) realistic estimate of electricity availability both in terms of energy and capacity from various sources. While the peak demand and energy requirement in the States are worked out on the basis of the trend analysis considering the actual data for the preceding years as also the specific load requirements, if any, as per established methodology. The energy availability was worked out on the basis of generation targets set by the Operations Performance Monitoring Division, CEA after detailed consultations with the generating companies/SEBs and approved by Ministry of Power. The Regional Power Committees prepare the estimates of month-wise power requirement and availability for each of its constituents and finalize the same in consultation with them. The region wise power supply position was coordinated in Grid Management Division, CEA to arrive at the all India power supply position.

The energy availability in each State is worked out at respective Regional Power Committee Secretariat as under:

• Generation from generating plants owned by the state
  
• Share of power from the common projects
  
• Allocation of firm power from Central generating stations
  
• Allocation from unallocated quota of power from Central generating stations as per the allocation in vogue
• Energy import-export under long term bilateral agreements

The LGBR projections have tended to be relatively close to actual performance. Thus, actual power availability in FY11 was less than one per cent above the projection, while it fell 2 per cent short of projection in FY10. Actual power requirement fell 1-2 per cent short of projection in these two years.

PROGRESS IN XI PLAN
The ongoing XI Plan has seen addition of 44,661 mw by June 2011 inclusive of 10,694 mw from new and renewable energy sources. The feat though already 64 per cent higher than the 10th plan and more than twice to the accomplishment in the IX Plan would still be terribly short of 62,374 mw capacity addition targeted for the plan that is going to end in March next. As at the end of June, the country had 176,990 mw of installed capacity, comprising 115650 mw of thermal, 38,106 mw of hydro, 4,780 mw of nuclear and 18,454 mw of renewable sources. In addition, there was also 19,509 mw of grid-connected captive power capacity.

The capacity addition of 109,436 ckm to 400kV transmission lines and 135,969 ckm to 220kV transmission lines till June in the ongoing XI Plan has already exceeded their respective additions during the 10th Plan. Likewise the additions of 139,442 MVA in 400kV substations 208,661 MVA in 220kV substations have also surpassed their X Plan augmentations. Moreover, during the ongoing plan, private sector/joint ventures have marked their presence in this field that was exclusively in the public sector earlier.

Region-wise Energy Scenario: 2011-12
	Energy Availability (MU)		Peak Power (MW)
	Reqmt	Supply	Reqmt	Supply
Northern	279,581	249,145	41,000	36,140
Western	287,757	256,237	42,422	37,781
Southern	250,024	223,814	37,247	31,859
Eastern	105,461	97,294	17,171	15,185
North-Eastern	10,918	10,884	2,198	2,068
All India	933,741	837,374	136,193	118,676
Source: CEA

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