International Energy Agency has placed additional
investment requirement at around $641 billion (at 2010
valuation) between 2010 and 2030 for ensuring Universal
Modern Energy Access in its World Energy Outlook 2011,
which has been themed on "Energy for all: Financing the
access for the poor". The investment would include around
$567 billion for electricity and $74 billion for providing
universal access to clean cooking facilities —much larger than
around $275 billion for electricity and $21 billion for clean
cooking service under the New Policies Scenario, the IEA's
central setting for the period. Under the NPS even as the share
of global population lacking access to electricity is to decline
from 19 per cent in 2009 to 12 per cent in 2030 and the share of
populace lacking clean cooking capability from 39 per cent to
33 per cent, there would still be one billion people without
electricity and 2.7 billion lacking clean cooking infrastructure
by the end of the period.
The universal modern energy scenario, which is termed
broadly as reliable and affordable access to clean cooking
facility and a first electricity connection to a household and
then increasing level of power consumption over time to
reach national average calls for, apart from massive additions
to advanced biogas cook stoves, biogas systems and LPG
stoves, an increase in global electricity generation of 2.5 per
cent (around 840 TWh) requiring by 2030 additional
generating capacity of around 220 GW, compared with the
New Policies Scenario, or the base policy scenario. Of the
additional electricity needed in 2030, approximately 45 per
cent is expected to be generated and delivered through
extensions to national grids, 36 per cent by mini-grid
solutions and the remaining 20 per cent by isolated off-grid
solutions. More than 60 per cent of the additional on-grid
generation would come from fossil fuel sources and coal alone
is to account for more than half of the total on-grid additions.
In the case of mini-grid and off-grid generation, more than 90
per cent is provided by renewables.
ADDITIONAL ENERGY DEMAND IN THE ENERGY FOR ALL CASE |
|
Additional energy
demand (mtoe) |
Change over New Policies
Scenario (per cent) |
| |
2020 |
2030 |
2020 |
2030 |
| Coal |
10.0 |
42.0 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| Oil |
25.0 |
48.0 |
0.6 |
1.1 |
| Gas |
1.0 |
7.0 |
0.0 |
0.2 |
| Nuclear |
3.0 |
3.0 |
0.3 |
0.2 |
| Hydro |
6.0 |
8.0 |
0.2 |
1.7 |
| Biomass and waste |
8.0 |
31.0 |
0.5 |
1.8 |
| Other renewables |
12.0 |
41.0 |
4.0 |
7.8 |
| Total |
64.0 |
179.0 |
0.4 |
1.1 |
Renewables are set to play a large role in this scenario. The
global technical potential for hydropower generation is
estimated at 14,500 TWh, more than four times current
production, and most of the undeveloped potential is in Africa
and in Asia, where 92 per cent and 80 per cent of reserves
respectively are untapped. Hydropower on-grid accounts for
14 per cent of additional generation, while SHPs account for 8
per cent of off-grid additional generation. Overall, additional
investment in hydropower amounts to just above $80 billion
over the period 2010 to 2030. Successfully raising this
investment will depend on mitigating the risks related to high
upfront costs and lengthy lead times for planning, permitting
and constructing projects
FINANCIAL REQUIREMENT
There will need to be significant increase in financing from all
major sources. Investment from multilateral development
banks and bilateral ODA collectively needs to average around
$18 billion per year. In addition, average annual investment of
almost $15 billion would be called for from governments in
developing countries, including state-owned utilities.
Developing countries are expected to provide most of the
finance required for mini-grid solutions, penetration of LPG
for cooking, etc. Investment of around $15 billion per year is
required from the private sector that would need to finance
almost 35 per cent of the total investment needed to expand
on-grid connections and around 40 per cent of the investment
to provide households biogas systems for cooking.
Untitled Document
INVESTMENT FOR UNIVERSAL ACCESS TO ELECTRICITY |
($ billion in 2010) |
| |
2010-20 |
2020-30 |
Total |
| Africa |
119 |
271 |
390 |
| Sub-Saharan Africa |
118 |
271 |
389 |
| Developing Asia |
119 |
122 |
241 |
| India |
62 |
73 |
135 |
| Rest of developing Asia |
58 |
49 |
107 |
| Latin America |
3 |
3 |
6 |
| Developing Countries |
243 |
398 |
641 |