The power sector seems to have fared slightly worse during the first seven months of FY13, compared to what Central Electricity Authority had projected in its Load Generation Balance Report. Thus, actual average deficit was around 8.6 per cent over the period, as compared to 8.5 per cent expected in LGBR. Actual power availability was assessed better at 534 BU during April-October, against 522 BU factored in LGBR. But, then, requirement of around 584 BU over the period also exceeded the 522 BU expected in LGBR. The feat on deficit for April-October, however, masks intra-period volatility of power sector. Thus, due to southwest monsoon playing truant on the one hand and higher power requirement on the other, actual deficit had worsened from 8.6 per cent in June to 8.9 per cent in July and 9.1 per cent in August, as compared to easing in deficit from 7.7 per cent to 6 per cent expected in LGBR over the period. However, lower deficit in April, May and October due to subdued growth in requirement helped make up for the lost ground. Peak demand shortage was expected to be around 10.4 per cent, against 9 per cent for April-October period as per provisional data from CEA.

LGBR projections seem to have gone wrong during April-October, particularly in western region, which is the second highest power consumer region in the country. The region ran power deficits throughout the seven months period, against surpluses assumed in LGBR, with actual average deficit over the period working out to 3.1 per cent, against a surplus of 1.3 per cent assessed in LGBR. Power requirement for the region turned out to be more, while availability fell marginally short. The deficit in northern region, the most power consuming region, turned out to be around one percentage point less, while that in southern region was over three percentage points lower. In northern region, actual deficit was lower than projection in April, May and October, whereas it surpassed projections in June to September due to lacking southwest monsoon rains. Actual deficit fell short of projected deficit consistently during April- October in the southern region, even as it exceeded projected levels in eastern region in all the seven months barring June.

POWER DEFICIT BY REGION
	2012-13		April-October
Region	LGBR		LGBR		Actual
	Req (MU)	S/D (%)	Req (MU)	S/D (%)	Req (MU)	S/D (%)
Northern	299,166	-10.6	179,105	-10.5	183,974	-9.6
Western	285,541	0.3	159,539	1.4	165,757	-3.1
Southern	277,480	-19.5	158,460	-18.0	161,673	-14.6
Eastern	111,159	-4.8	65,973	-3.9	65,552	-4.8
North-Eastern	11,970	-14.1	7,291	-8.6	6,865	-7.7
All India	985,317	-9.3	570,368	-8.5	583,821	-8.6
Note: Req(MU) is Requirement in million kwh; S/D is Surplus/Deficit

The gross energy generation in the country has been assessed at 930 BU for 2012-13 in LGBR, which has factored for this purpose power availability from various stations in operation including CPP and non-conventional energy, fuel availability, proposed maintenance schedule of the units, anticipated water availability at hydropower stations, as also a capacity addition of 17,956 mw over the year, comprising 15,154 mw of thermal, 802 mw of hydro and 2,000 mw of nuclear power. The first seven months of the year have seen 9,036 mw of new capacity, comprising 8,735 mw of thermal and 301 mw of hydro power.

The country is to tackle average deficit of 9.3 per cent and a peak demand/availability deficit of around 10.6 per cent over 2012-13. Power requirement is expected to go up by around 5.1 per cent over the year and total ex-bus energy availability (i.e. energy dispatched by the generating station after internal consumption) by 4.1 per cent, which would lead to a rather sharp worsening in energy deficit to 9.3 per cent from 8.5 per cent average in the preceding two years. Peak demand/availability deficit is to broadly remain same. Western region is expected to be self-sufficient in energy with peak demand deficit too remaining subdued at 3.2 per cent. The feat reflecting robust growth in power availability, but surprisingly a nominal decline during 2012-13 is remarkable when viewed against average deficit of 10+ per cent in preceding five years. By the way, the region recorded 3.1 per cent deficit, against 1.2 per cent surplus projected in LGBR during the first seven months of the fiscal. Northern region is to face 10.6 per cent energy deficit and 12.3 per cent peak demand deficit, southern region 19.5 per cent energy and 26.3 per cent peak demand deficit and eastern region 4.8 per cent energy deficit and a nominal surplus in peak demand requirement.

The average power deficit for the country was to fall from 11 per cent in April to 6 per cent by August and resume uptrend subsequently to peak at 13 per cent in February as per LGBR. Energy requirement as also availability would be the maximum in March, which would see energy shortage of 11.6 per cent. Seven out of 12 months during 2012-13 would see double-digit peak demand/availability deficit in the country.

STATE-WISE DETAILS
Twenty five states (or UTs) would have energy deficit and 30 states would have peak deficit of varying degrees. Nine states would have net surplus energy and five would have peak surplus on annual basis. Hydro-rich states having run of river schemes on the Himalayan rivers viz. Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Uttarakhand would be surplus in energy during monsoon period, while they would face severe shortage conditions during the low inflow winter months when the generation from hydro schemes dwindles to the minimum. DVC and Sikkim would have both peaking and energy surplus on annual basis.
 

POWER SCENARIO IN 2012-13
(million kwh)
	LGBR			Actual/Provisional
	Requirement	Availability	S/D (%)	Requirement	Availability	S/D (%)
Apr-12	79,401	70,455	-11.3	78,542	72,138	-8.2
May-12	82,888	75,813	-8.5	84,242	77,831	-7.6
Jun-12	79,191	73,070	-7.7	85,004	77,700	-8.6
Jul-12	82,036	75,791	-7.6	87,828	80,047	-8.9
Aug-12	82,135	77,221	-6	82,815	75,306	-9.1
Sep-12	80,576	73,687	-8.5	81,296	74,297	-8.6
Oct-12	84,141	76,022	-9.6	84,094	76,440	-9.1
Nov-12	79,684	72,426	-9.1
Dec-12	82,245	75,109	-8.7
Jan-13	84,471	76,052	-10
Feb-13	80,339	69,749	-13.2
Mar-13	88,209	77,976	-11.6
Total	985,317	893,371	-9.3

Chandigarh, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, DNH, Manipur and Tripura would have surplus in terms of energy whereas Himachal Pradesh and Orissa will be in comfortable position in terms of peak on annual basis. All other states in the country would have electricity shortages of varying degrees both in term of energy and peaking.

In a major transformation, Chhattisgarh has emerged as the largest power surplus state, with surplus projected at 30 per cent during the current fiscal, against shortfalls, though nominal, in earlier years. Power availability is expected to double to 31,222 MU during the year which would easily take care of 59 per cent increase in power requirement. The state recorded 1.7 per cent power shortage during April-October, though it was expected to be power surplus throughout the year. Maharashtra, the largest consuming state, is to face 12.1 per cent deficit over the current fiscal, reducing from 16.6- 16.7 per cent in 2010-11 and 2011-12. The state's power requirement is projected to go down 15 per cent, whereas the availability is feared to deteriorate by 10 per cent. The deficit was to range between 8 per cent in June to 18 per cent in August. The state faced a much lower deficit of 3.5 per cent during April-October 2012.

Uttar Pradesh is projected to face a much worse 19 per cent deficit, compared to 11 per cent in 2011-12, due to a much faster increase in power requirement and a little lower power availability. The deficit was to range between 13 per cent in March 2013 to 27 per cent in September. The state faced 16 per cent energy deficit during April-October 2012. The deficit in Tamil Nadu is expected to worsen three times to 30 per cent due to 8 per cent increase in requirement, against a decline in availability. The deficit was to remain well over 20 per cent over the months (barring 19 per cent in June). The state faced 16 per cent deficit during April- October.

Andhra Pradesh is projected to face 23 per cent deficit, three times the level in 2011-12 as its power needs were expected to be self-sufficient in energy with peak demand deficit too remaining subdued at 3.2 per cent. The feat reflecting robust growth in power availability, but surprisingly a nominal decline during 2012-13 is remarkable when viewed against average deficit of 10+ per cent in preceding five years. By the way, the region recorded 3.1 per cent deficit, against 1.2 per cent surplus projected in LGBR during the first seven months of the fiscal. Northern region is to face 10.6 per cent energy deficit and 12.3 per cent peak demand deficit, southern region 19.5 per cent energy and 26.3 per cent peak demand deficit and eastern region 4.8 per cent energy deficit and a nominal surplus in peak demand requirement.

The average power deficit for the country was to fall from 11 per cent in April to 6 per cent by August and resume uptrend subsequently to peak at 13 per cent in February as per LGBR. Energy requirement as also availability would be the maximum in March, which would see energy shortage of 11.6 per cent. Seven out of 12 months during 2012-13 would see double-digit peak demand/availability deficit in the country.

Hydro-rich states having run of river schemes on the Himalayan rivers viz. Himachal Pradesh, Jammu & Kashmir, and Uttarakhand would be surplus in energy during monsoon period, while they would face severe shortage conditions during the low inflow winter months when the generation from hydro schemes dwindles to the minimum. DVC and Sikkim would have both peaking and energy surplus on annual basis. Chandigarh, Haryana, Chhattisgarh, DNH, Manipur and Tripura would have surplus in terms of energy whereas Himachal Pradesh and Orissa will be in comfortable position in terms of peak on annual basis.

All other states in the country would have electricity shortages of varying degrees both in term of energy and peaking. In a major transformation, Chhattisgarh has emerged as the largest power surplus state, with surplus projected at 30 per cent during the current fiscal, against shortfalls, though nominal, in earlier years. Power availability is expected to double to 31,222 MU during the year which would easily take care of 59 per cent increase in power requirement. The state recorded 1.7 per cent power shortage during April-October, though it was expected to be power surplus throughout the year.

Maharashtra, the largest consuming state, is to face 12.1 per cent deficit over the current fiscal, reducing from 16.6- 16.7 per cent in 2010-11 and 2011-12. The state's power requirement is projected to go down 15 per cent, whereas the availability is feared to deteriorate by 10 per cent. The deficit was to range between 8 per cent in June to 18 per cent in August. The state faced a much lower deficit of 3.5 per cent during April-October 2012. Uttar Pradesh is projected to face a much worse 19 per cent deficit, compared to 11 per cent in 2011-12, due to a much faster increase in power requirement and a little lower power availability. The deficit was to range between 13 per cent in March 2013 to 27 per cent in September. The state faced 16 per cent energy deficit during April-October 2012.

The deficit in Tamil Nadu is expected to worsen three times to 30 per cent due to 8 per cent increase in requirement, against a decline in availability. The deficit was to remain well over 20 per cent over the months (barring 19 per cent in June). The state faced 16 per cent deficit during April- October.

Andhra Pradesh is projected to face 23 per cent deficit, three times the level in 2011-12 as its power needs were expected to mount 8 per cent, while the availability is to fall around 10 per cent. The deficit in the state was to range between 16 per cent in August to 29 per cent in March. The average deficit in Andhra Pradesh over April-October worked out to around 16.7 per cent.

Energy deficit in Karnataka is to fall from 11 per cent to 1.3 per cent, due to sharp increase of around 13 per cent in power availability. The state was to be surplus in energy in four out of 12 months. Actual deficit in the state over April-October was, however, much more at 13.5 per cent, against around twice the measure expected in LGBR.

Gujarat would encounter 5 per cent shortfall, against a nominal shortfall in 2011-12. The state suffered only nominal shortfall during the first seven months of the current fiscal.

METHODOLOGY
The annual Load Generation Balance Report (LGBR) for the year 2012-13, the thirty first publication in the series on the subject, covers the month-wise anticipated energy requirement and availability (in MU) as well as peak demand and availability (in MW) for the year, considering all India annual generation target of 930 BU, finalized after detailed discussions with the state electricity boards/ utilities and Central/state/private generation companies and availability from import of power from generation projects in Bhutan and also availability from non-conventional and renewable energy sources in the country.

The net energy availability (ex-bus) corresponding to gross energy target as finalized in CEA/ Ministry of Power is computed for all generating plants taking into consideration the normative auxiliary consumption. The energy availability in each state is worked out at respective Regional Power Committee Secretariat as under:

• Generation from generating plants owned by the state
  
• Share of power from the common projects
  
• Allocation of firm power from Central generating stations
  
• Allocation from unallocated quota of power from Central generating stations as per the allocation in vogue
  
• Energy import-export under long term bilateral agreements

The short-term exchange as per bilateral contracts and exchange of energy through exchanges is not taken into consideration. Depending upon the actual exchanges and over drawal/under drawls of energy against schedule, the availability of power to a state may change.

Assessment of unrestricted peak demand and unrestricted energy requirement and peak and energy availability of constituent states of each Region has been done by the respective Regional Power Committees (RPCs) after review of the projections made by the constituent states, past data and the trend analysis. The inputs provided by the RPCs are analysed and the anticipated month-wise power supply position for each state, region and the country are prepared by Grid Management Division of CEA. The estimated peak availability is calculated from the units available for generation for various utilities in different months after considering schedule maintenance in the RPC forum and auxiliary consumptions.

The anticipated electricity shortages or surpluses are calculated as a difference between the net unrestricted anticipated requirement and the net anticipated availability in terms of energy and peak demand.

The LGBR projections have tended to be relatively close to actual performance. Thus, actual power availability in FY12 was 2.4 per cent above the projection in FY12 and 0.6 per cent in FY11, while it fell 2 per cent short of projection in FY10. Actual power requirement surpassed projection in FY12, while it fell 1-2 per cent short of projection in earlier two years.

In eastern region, actual feat fell short of LGBR projection in all parameters, namely energy requirement, availability, peak demand ad peak demand met in 2011-12, whereas in southern it surpassed LGBR expectations.

XII PLAN PROJECTIONS
As per 18th Electric Power Survey (EPS) report, the projected all-India peak demand and energy requirement at the end of 12th Plan (2016-17) is 199,540 mw and 1354.874 BU respectively at power station bus-bar. To meet this projected demand, capacity addition of 88,537 mw is required during 12th Five Year Plan from conventional sources including thermal and hydro. In addition, the installed capacity of gridinteractive renewable sources of power generation is expected to be about 54,000 mw at the end of XII Plan period. This capacity is expected to be adequate to generate power to meet the stipulated energy requirement (net) at the end of the current Five Year Plan period, according to the information recently furnished in Parliament.

SUMMARY POWER POSITION
Range	Number of States
	Energy	Peak
	Deficit
Above 20%	8	13
10% - 20%	9	9
5% - 10%	4	2
0% - 5%	4	6
Total	25	30
Surplus
Above 20%	2	2
10% - 20%	2	2
5% - 10%	1	0
0% - 5%	4	0
Total	9	4

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