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NEWS  ANALYSIS

Power deficit drops to 4.2 pc due to subdued economy

Dr. M.S.Kapadia ,  Thursday, May 15, 2014, 14:45 Hrs  [IST]

Even as the total power requirement in the country crossed the 1 trillion-kwh mark for the first time in FY14, it showed only a marginal rise over the preceding year, reflecting stagnating industry and steeply decelerating economy. This, together with a 5.6 per cent increase in ex-bus power availability, resulted in a sharp decline in the power deficit to 4.2 per cent during the year, which is half of the shortage in the fiscal 2012-13. Peak demand/peak supply deficit also fell to 4.5 per cent from 4.6 per cent during fiscal 2012-13 and 9 per cent two years back.

Power deficit in top six states in FY14

Requirement
Availability
Deficit
%

(million kwh)

Maharashtra
126,288
123,672
2,616
2.1
Andhra Pradesh
95,660
89,034
6,626
6.9
Uttar Pradesh
94,890
81,613
13,277
14
Tamil Nadu
93,465
87,938
5,527
-5.9
Gujarat
88,497
88,488
9
0
Karnataka
64,165
58,068
6,097
9.5
Total for above states
562,965
528,813
34,152
6.1
Total for other states
439,080
430,801
8,279
1.9
All-India
1,002,045
959,614
42,431
4.2

In fact, mirroring gathering speed in economy downturn during the year, the average deficit which was ruling at 8.6 per cent at the end of March 2013, fell to 4.1 per cent in next three months 3.9 per cent by December and 3.6 per cent by March 2014 (though erratically it had gone up to 6.7 per cent in September). Ex-bus power available reflects the total electricity sent out/delivered from generating stations, which would be less than total power generation by broadly auxiliary power consumption and transformation losses within the generating stations.

Significantly, power deficit eased in FY14 across the country, which was more due to subdued economic activity than to substantially improved power availability. Northern region, the largest power consumer region for past two years, witnessed 6 per cent deficit, which though showed easing from 9.3 per cent in FY13. Uttar Pradesh (14 per cent) and Jammu & Kashmir (22 per cent) largely contributed to the shortage. Southern region had to bear 6.8 per cent power deficiency which comprised 9.5 per cent in Karnataka, 6.9 per cent in Andhra Pradesh and 5.9 per cent in Tamil Nadu. Western region witnessed only a marginal one per cent shortage, with all the seven states experiencing negligible deficit.

Ex-bus Power Availability & Requirement

Requirement
Availability
Deficit

(million kwh)
mln kwh
per cent
2007-08
737,052
664,660
72,392
9.8
2008-09
774,324
689,021
85,303
11.0
2009-10
830,300
746,493
83,807
10.1
2010-11
861,591
788,355
73,236
8.5
2011-12
937,199
857,886
79,313
8.5
2012-13
995,500
908,574
86,926
8.7
2013-14
1,002,045
959,614
42,431
4.2

Maharashra, the top power consumer state in the country, experienced 2.1 per cent power deficit during FY14, slowing from 3.3 per cent in the preceding fiscal and 16.7 per cent two years back. Andhra Pradesh, the second ranked state faced 6.9 per cent (17.6 per cent) shortage. Uttar Pradesh, the third largest state faced 14 per cent (16.6 per cent) shortage. Karnataka suffered 9.5 per cent (13.9 per cent) shortage, even as Gujarat was self-sufficient in meeting its power needs for the second year. The top six states which account for 56 per cent of the power consumption in the country were responsible for four-fifths of the power deficit in the nation.

Taking a little longer period, power shortage had peaked at 11 per cent in FY09; the deficit fell to 10 per cent in the following year, averaged a lower 8.5 per cent during FY11 and FY12, rose marginally to 8.7 per cent in FY13 but fell to 4.2 per cent in FY14 due to steeper fall in the pace in power requirement. In fact, mirroring the decline in economic growth rapidity, the fall in power requirement and consequently in power deficit was the steepest in FY14 since FY08.

The severity of deficit fell steeply in Tamil Nadu (from 17.5 per cent to 5.9 per cent), Andhra Pradesh (from 17.6 per cent to 6.9 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (from 9.7 per cent to 0.1 per cent) and Bihar (from 16.7 per cent to 4.1 per cent).

Enigmatic Maharashtra

Whereas power requirement and power availability has improved across the country since 2007-08, Maharashtra has been a major exception where according to CEA data, power requirement shot up from 128 billion kwh in FY11 to 141 billion in 2011-12 and fell back to 123-126 billion in next two years, even as power availability improved from 118 billion units to 124 billion units between these years. This resulted in steep fall in deficit from an average of 17 per cent during FY10 to FY12 to 3.3 per cent in FY13 and 2.2 per cent in FY14. Going by indications the steep decline in power requirement in the state looks enigmatic even while granting it being a slowing state economy; as reducing growth velocity has been incidentally a pan-India phenomenon.


The power requirement has gone up annually across all states, though at varying rates, since 2007-08, with average growth over the six years period working out to around 6 per cent. The power availability has also improved over this period at an annual average of 7 per cent.
 
                 
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