The XI Plan period that concluded on March 31, 2012, was an eventful episode for the power sector. Although the cherished "Power for All" dream remained elusive, there were significant achievements on various counts, including key policy reforms and initiatives. As we move into the XII Plan with renewed vigour, M.S. Kapadia takes a close look at the power sector scorecard in the bygone Plan period.

In a major landmark, the generating capacity in the country crossed 2 lakh mw mark, scaling to 200,287 mw, in early April with the commissioning of a 660 mw unit of the Jhajjar thermal power plant in Haryana. The installed capacity then comprised 1,32,013 mw in thermal, 38,991 mw in hydro, 4,780 mw in nuclear, and 24,503 mw in renewable energy sources (RES). The total installed capacity, at the end of the XI Plan (March 31, 2012), was 199,627 mw.

The country's power capacity had crossed 1 lakh mw in 2001-02. Earlier, power infrastructure had grown from 1,362 mw on the eve of independence to 28,448 mw by 1980 and to 63,636 mw by 1990. Despite the repeated failure in meeting targets, it is noteworthy that the second 1 lakh mw addition in power sector infrastructure was achieved in just a decade, as compared to 50 years for the first 1 lakh mw.

Deficiency in power infrastructure has arisen due to ballooning power needs of an accelerating economy that broke through the 3-5 per cent growth plateau till 1990 and 5-6 per cent in the next decade to enter a higher 5-7 per cent growth trajectory in the new millennium. Despite the rapid power infrastructure growth, policy makers cannot be complacent as, notwithstanding the increase in capita consumption of electricity from 15.6 units in 1950 to 766, units during the year 2009-10, the power shortage has remained a major stumbling block to a rapidity in economic and social development of masses in the country. The per capita electricity consumption in the country is just around a fourth of the level in China and less than a tenth of that in USA.

GROWTH IN INSTALLED POWER CAPACITY (MW)
	Thermal				Nuclear	Hydro	RES	Total
	Coal	Gas	Diesel	Total
8th Plan	12,917	4,219	129	17,265	660	3,350	884	22,159
9th Plan	7,976	4,601	841	13,419	495	4,611	726	19,251
10th Plan	8,991	2,529	67	11,586	1,180	8,385	6,132	27,283
11th Plan (Prov)	40,901	4,439	-2	45,338	880	4,337	16,743	67,298

GROWTH BY MODE
The XI Plan that ended on 31 March 2012, has witnessed an unprecedented growth in capacity with addition of 67,298 mw of fresh capacity over the plan showing record 1.5-fold increase over 24,283 mw added during the X Plan period. During the IX Plan the capacity addition stood at 19,251 mw. The last year 2011-12 of the XI plan in fact saw new benchmarks created in the capacity addition. A record capacity of 26,001 mw, almost equal to what was added in X Five Year Plan got added during the year.

Thermal power continued to dominate capacity augmentation in the XI Plan, accounting for two-thirds of new capacity. As was the case during the X Plan period, over 80 per cent of incremental thermal capacity was coal-fired. With heavy dependence on coal likely to continue for quite some years in future, there is evidently great concern over domestic availability and pricing of this crucial fuel in thermal generation. Gas is the next preferred fuel with new capacity based on this feedstock amounting to 4,439 mw in the XI Plan. The thermal capacity addition based on gas feedstock was lower at 2,529 mw during the X Plan, against average of 4,400 mw in the earlier two Plan periods. Diesel-based thermal capacity appears to be on the way out due to environment and cost considerations. The share of diesel-based thermal to total thermal declined from 1.5 per cent in the IX Plan to less than one per cent by the end of the XI Plan.

Nuclear power saw addition of around 880 mw during the XI plan, less than 1180 mw commissioned in the X Plan. However, nuclear generation, particularly PLF shot up in the later years of the plan due to signing of civil nuclear treaty with US and the consequent dramatic improvement in fuel supplies from global suppliers. Around 4,300 mw got commissioned in hydropower (renewable) during the XI Plan, substantially less than 8,300 mw in the X plan and also lower than 4,600 mw in the IX Plan. Environment concerns, forest clearances and land issues held back the new capacity addition in the hydropower.

GROWTH IN POWER GENERATION
	y-o-y %		y-o-y %
2000-01	4.0	2006-07	7.2
2001-02	3.1	2007-08	6.4
2002-03	3.2	2008-09	2.8
2003-04	5.1	2009-10	6.1
2004-05	5.2	2010-11	5.5
2005-06	5.2	2011-12	8.1

The star performer in the XI Plan was grid-connected renewable energy sources that fall under the Ministry of New & Renewable Energy (MNRE). Capacity addition under renewable energy sources comprising small hydro, solar energy, wind energy, biomass gasifier, biomass power, urban and industrial waste power, etc scaled a record 16,743 mw, around a fourth of the total capacity addition in the XI Plan and more than twice that commissioned during the X Plan. The feat raised their share in grid connected generation to around 12 per cent, from 6 per cent at the end of the X Plan and just around 1.5 per cent at the end of the IX Plan. According to MNRE sources, 10259.60 mw wind power, 1418.85 mw small hydropower, 1,996 mw biomass power, 46.20 mw wasteto- power and 940 mw solar power was commissioned over the Plan period.

CAPACITY BY REGION
The western region accounted for 32 per cent of installed capacity in the country at the end of 2011-12, followed by 26- 27 per cent each in northern region and southern regions. Eastern and north-eastern regions together formed just around 14 per cent. Whereas western region dominates in thermal capacity, northern and southern region are prominent in hydro power. Southern region leads in renewable energy sources (RES) with 47 per cent share, followed by western region with 32 per cent and northern region with 18 per cent.

POWER GENERATION: 2011-12
(billion kwh)
	Program	Actual	% of	y-o-y
			Program	% chg
Thermal	712.23	708.45	99.47	6.5
Nuclear	25.13	32.27	128.41	22.9
Hydro	112.05	130.43	116.40	14.2
Bhutan Import	5.59	5.28	94.60	-5.8
Total	855.00	876.43	102.51	8.1

CAPACITY BY OWNERSHIP
Power is the major sector, after telecom, where private sector has responded positively to reforms, committing huge funds in generation, transmission and distribution projects. As at the end of FY12, the share of private sector in installed capacity worked out to 27 per cent, against 30 per cent by Central government and 43 per cent by state governments who have the longest presence in the sector. Private sector accounts for 23 per cent of thermal capacity, 6 per cent of hydro capacity and as much as 86 per cent of grid-connected RES. nuclear capacity of 4,780 mw is exclusively in the Central sector. Central PSUs like NTPC, NHPC, SVJNL, etc own 35 per cent of thermal capacity and 23 per cent of hydropower capacity, while PGCIL owns the national transmission grid. State-level utilities account for 42 per cent of thermal capacity, 70 per cent of hydro and 14 per cent of RES in the country. During 2011-12, private sector dominated capacity addition in public utilities with 11,445 mw out of a total of 19,690 mw commissioned during the year.

XII PLAN PROJECTIONS
The Working Group on Power for the XII Plan has proposed to add 75,785 mw of new power generation capacity in public utilities over the Plan period under "base case" that is explained as "business-as-usual scenario particularly in respect to domestic coal availability." GDP growth has been estimated at 9 per cent and electricity elasticity to GDP at around 0.9 for this projection. Against the requirement of 653 million tonnes of coal (net of captive mines,SCCL, etc), CIL has committed to supply 415 million tonnes which is about 75 per cent of its production of 556 million tonnes in BAU scenario. CIL is to be impressed upon for formulating exigency plan to enhance production to meet the requirement of the power stations, the working group has stressed. In addition, grid interactive renewable capacity addition of about 18,500 mw has been proposed comprising of 11,000 mw wind, 1,600 mw small hydro (each project of up to 25 mw), 2,100 mw biomass power, bagasse cogeneration and waste-to-energy put together and 3,800 mw solar has been considered based on inputs provided by MNRE. The estimated fund requirement during XII Plan for generation, including renewable, works out to about Rs.638,600 crore including Rs.2,72,582 crore for advance action for XIII Plan projects. Private sector share in capacity addition in public utilities is projected at around 55 per cent for the XII Plan, against 36 per cent likely in the XI plan. Private sector would probably continue to account for lion's share in RES capacity addition over the XII Plan.

STATES WITH CHRONIC POWER DEFICIT
(per cent)
	MAH	MP	KAR	TN	UP	BIH
2007-08	-18.3	-14.1	-2.7	-2.8	-17.5	-14.2
2008-09	-21.4	-17.2	-6.0	-7.9	-20.9	-17.6
2009-10	-18.7	-19.0	-7.7	-6.2	-21.7	-15.5
2010-11	-16.6	-20.2	-7.6	-6.5	-15.0	-14.0
2011-12	-16.7	-16.9	-11.2	-10.5	-11.4	-22.0

According to the report of Working Group on Power, availability of coal indicated by CIL would support only 7,500 mw of CIL-linked new power generation capacity as against 38,000 mw required to meet the power ministry's proposed target of 76,000 mw during the current (XII) Plan period.

GENERATION
Electricity generation was up by a record high 8.1 per cent during 2011-12, according to tentative data from CEA, as compared to 5.5 per cent in 2010-11, 6.1 per cent in 2009-10 and 2.8 per cent in 2008-09. However, behind the robust show during the FY12, the feat of the generation over the year raises some concerns. Thus, the average monthly generation quickened from 8.2 per cent in Q1 to around 10 per cent in next two quarters, but dropped to 4.6 per cent in Q4, with the last month of the fiscal recording just around 2.1 per cent.

The electricity generation during FY12 was 876.43 billion kwh (BU), exceeding target of 855 BU for the financial year. Power import from Bhutan JV was assessed at 5.28 BU (FY11: 5.61 BU). In view of improved generation by coal-based, nuclear and hydropower stations, the requirement for costly power from gas, liquid fuel and DG sets was reduced. Improvement in generation has followed growth in installed power capacity. The stock of installed capacity went up by 12 per cent during 2011-12, against 7.4 per cent in 2010-11, 6.8 per cent in 2009-10 and 2.1 per cent in 2008-09.

Thermal generation was up by 6.5 per cent during FY12, vastly bettering 3.8 per cent during 2010-11, but fell short of 8.5 per cent increase two years back. PLF at thermal projects worked out to 73.29 per cent, against 74.97 per cent in 2010- 11. PLF at coal fired thermal was 73.46 per cent (FY11: 75.25 per cent), whereas it was assessed at 70.89 per cent (73.82 per cent) at lignite based thermal and around 60 per cent (66 per cent) in gas/diesel based thermal plants. Many of the newly commissioned units could have generated more power, but they could not do so on account of various problems which included coal shortages, transmission constraints etc. During the year, the anticipated gap between the requirement and availability of domestic coal was estimated around 54 million tonnes. Out of this, 35 million tonnes was to be met through import, for which all the utilities had been advised to take necessary action and remaining 20 million tonnes was the requirements of power plants designed on imported coal.

Generation from nuclear power plants increased by 23 per cent, slower than 41 per cent in FY11 and 27 per cent in FY10. Following vastly improved fuel supplies on the country signing civil nuclear treaties, PLF at the nuclear power stations shot up from 41 per cent in 2008-09 to 77 per cent by 2011-12.

Hydropower generation increased by 14 per cent during the year, against 10 per cent increase in FY11, and 6 per cent decline during FY10. The improvement reflected effects of better southwest monsoon.

DEFICIT
With overall energy availability placed at 857 billion kwh (BU), against the requirement of 937 BU, the average deficit was assessed at 8.5 per cent during 2011-12. The measure of shortage remained at the level in the preceding year, though it was less than 10-11 per cent during the first three years of the XI Plan. The deficit turned out to be lower than 10.3 per cent projected in CEA's Load Generation Balance Report for the year. While demand was a little more at 937 BU, against 934 BU expected for the year, the power availability turned out to be much better at 857 BU, against 837 BU estimated for the year. The deficit had eased from around 7.6 per cent in April to 4.8 per cent in August, but then worsened to the fiscal's peak level of 11.3 per cent by December, with the average deficit placed at a little less than 10 per cent during the last quarter of the fiscal.

POWER SUPPLY POSITION
	Peak Power (MW)				Energy (million kwh)
	Demand	Met	Deficit	Deficit (%)	Reqmt	Avble	Deficit	Deficit (%)
2006-07	100,715	86,818	-13,897	-13.8	690,587	624,495	-66,092	-9.6
XI Plan
2007-08	108,866	90,793	-18,073	-16.6	739,343	666,007	-73,336	-9.9
2008-09	109,809	96,785	-13,024	-11.9	777,039	691,038	-86,001	-11.1
2009-10	119,166	104,009	-15,157	-12.7	830,594	746,644	-83,950	-10.1
2010-11	125,077	112,167	-12,910	-10.3	862,125	789,013	-73,112	-8.5
2011-12	130,006	116,191	-13,815	-10.6	936,568	857,239	-79,329	-8.5

Maharashtra, the largest power consumer state in the country faced 16.7 per cent deficit during the year. Bihar (22 per cent), Madhya Pradesh (16.9 per cent), Uttar Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka (11 per cent each) were the other major states with significant shortage, whereas Gujarat was nearly self-sufficient in power needs.

By the way, there are some states that have faced power shortage consistently. Below are some major states where power deficit broadly worsened over the XI Plan. These six states together accounted for 46 per cent of the power requirement during the 2011-12. Gujarat was among the fewer states which could bring down deficit. The power shortage in the state declined from 16.2 per cent in 2007-08 to only 0.4 per cent by the end of the plan. Even as the state's power needs grew from 69 BU to 75 BU between 2007-08 and 2011-12, its availability improved from 58 BU to 74 BU.

TRANSMISSION & DISTRIBUTION
One of the most striking developments during the XI plan was the entry of private sector in the T&D segment that has generally been a public sector bastion. The private sector/JV owned at the end of the plan 8,443 circuit km (ckm) of 400kV lines and 468 ckm of 220kV lines.

Overall, 400kV transmission lines grew 55 per cent during the XI plan to cross 1 lakh ckm and reach 1.18 lakh ckm. In fact, the transmission line length more than doubled since the turn of the new millennium. The country's 220kV network increased by 22 per cent to 140,295 ckm during the Plan period. As of March 31, 2012, there were 148,682 substations of the 400kV type and 221,283 of the 200kV variety.

XII Plan projections: Over the decades, a robust interstate and inter-regional transmission system has evolved in the country which facilitates widespread reach of power over the vast area of the country. In 1947 the maximum voltage level of transmission line was 132kV that was subsequently increased to 220kV in 1960 and 400kV in 1977. To reduce right of way requirement for transmission lines and overcome constraints in availability of land for substations, 765kV transmission voltage is being increasingly adopted and gasinsulated substations are being provided wherever availability of land is a problem. HVDC 500kV back-to-back was introduced in the year 2000. Recognizing the need for the National Grid, thrust was given to enhancement of the interregional capacity in a phased manner.

Considering about 76,000 mw capacity addition, an interregional transmission capacity (IRTC) of 37,800 mw has been planned for the XII Plan. Thus, IRTC at the end of XII Plan is expected to be of the order of 63,000 mw. Transmission line additions of about 1,00,000 ckm, HVDC terminal capacity of 13,000 mw and AC transformation capacity of 2,70,000 MVA has been planned for the XII Plan.

765kV System: During XI Plan, a number of 765kV lines and substations have been added and a few more are under construction. A number of new 765kV lines and substations have been planned for evacuation of bulk power in the range of 3,000-6,000 mw over longer distances. The planned 765kV transmission systems are expected to be implemented during XII Plan or early XIII Plan period.

HVDC Transmission System: During XI Plan, Balia- Bhiwadi 2,500 mw HVDC bipole and upgradation of Talcher-Kolar bipole by 500 mw has been completed. Another HVDC bipole as Dedicated Transmission line, i.e. Mundra- Mohindergarh 2,500 mw is being constructed under private sector by Adani Group. Three more HVDC systems have been planned for completion during XII Plan or early XIII Plan.

1200kV transmission system: The Aurangabad-Wardha 400kV Quad D/C line which is part of the transmission system for evacuation of power from Mundra UMPP has been planned and designed in such a way that this line would be converted into a 1,200kV S/C line at a later date.

GROWTH OF TRANSMISSION SECTOR
Transmission Lines (ckm)
End of	400kV				220kV
	Central	State	JV/Pvt	Total	Central	State	JV/Pvt	Total
6th Plan	1,831	4,198	--	6,029	1,641	44,364	--	46,005
7th Plan	13,068	6,756	--	19,824	4,560	55,071	--	59,631
8th Plan	23,001	13,141	--	36,142	6,564	73,036	--	79,600
9th Plan	29,345	20,033	--	49,378	8,687	88,306	--	96,993
10th plan	50,992	24,730	--	75,722	9,444	105,185	--	114,629
11th Plan	75,974	33,681	8,443	118,098	11,004	128,823	468	140,295
Substations (MVA)
End of	400kV				220kV
	Central	State	JV/Pvt	Total	Central	State	JV/Pvt	Total
6th Plan	715	8,615	--	9,330	500	36,791	--	37,291
7th Plan	6,760	14,820	--	21,580	1,881	51,861	--	53,742
8th Plan	17,340	23,525	--	40,865	2,566	81,611	--	84,177
9th Plan	23,575	36,805	--	60,380	2,866	113,497	--	116,363
10th plan	40,455	52,487	--	92,942	4,276	152,221	--	156,497
11th Plan	74,880	73,172	630	148,682	5,956	213,760	1,567	221,283