Electrical Monitor

Mega cities set to witness yearly power consumption growth of 7 per cent

Dr. M.S. KapadiaTuesday, April 23, 2013, 11:42 Hrs  [IST]

Urban CitiesCEA has brought out 18th Electric Power Survey of India, Volume II (Draft Report) on mega cities, each with population of two million and more as per Census 2011 data. The report, which is a sequel to EPS Volume I on regions/states and Union Territories brought out earlier, was to form the agenda for EPS Committee meeting on April 1, 2013. The study which runs into 192 pages contains detailed energy data on each of these 13 mega cities, which are Greater Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Hyderabad, Bengaluru, Pune, Ahmedabad, Surat, Kanpur, Lucknow, Jaipur, Nagpur and Indore. The EPS of NCR, Delhi is being carried out in Volume III, whereas Volume IV is to cover all-India based on econometric model.

The total electrical energy requirement of the 13 cities accounted for 12 per cent of total EER of All India in 2011-12, while they housed 7.5 per cent of the country’s population. The CAGR of EER is 7 per cent during 12th Plan and 13th Plan, against around 7.4 per cent for the country. The combined T&D losses for these cities account for 14 per cent of energy produced as against 25 per cent for all-India. The loss is expected to reduce to 11.5 per cent average for mega cities against 15.3 per cent for All India by 2021-22.

The results of EPS reveal that Greater Mumbai ranks first among the 13 cities followed by Kolkata and Surat. Even as the same pattern is expected to continue by end of 12th & 13th Plan, Jaipur, Indore, Pune and Hyderabad are assessed to grow faster in energy requirement while Kolkata and Bangaluru would grow slower. The EER for these cities accounts for about 12 per cent of the total EER of All India by end of 12th & 13th Plan. EER for NCT, Delhi not included in the table was estimated at 27,029 MU in 2011-12, 37,360 MU in 2016-17 and 52,696 MU in 2021-22 in Volume I of the EPS. The annual peak electric load of Greater Mumbai is the highest among all the cities followed by Chennai, Kolkata and Hyderabad. The APEL has been worked out on the basis of EER and annual electric load factor.

Use pattern
The demand forecast of each city has been done for various categories of consumption such as domestic, commercial, industrial and others (which include public lighting, public water works, irrigation, railways and non industrial). The share of consumption in domestic category is likely to remain in the range of 34-35 per cent but a slight increase from 22 per cent to 25 per cent is anticipated in commercial category and a marginal reduction from 33 per cent to 31 per cent is likely to take place for industrial category.

Untitled Document
All India Electrical Energy Consumption

(million kwh)

Terminal year of

11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan
Domestic 34,109 48,565 68,712
Commercial 22,278 33,890 50,953
Industrial 31,041 43,804 59,340
Others 7,766 11,472 15,355
Total 95,194 137,731 194,360
The increasing trend in commercial category is primarily due to rapid pace of increase in consumption due to development of malls and other related activities. The drop in industrial utilization is primarily due to shifts to service industries from manufacturing units. The steady share of 8 per cent in others is primarily attributed to gradual depleting consumption in irrigation category (which is clubbed in others category) due to rapid urbanisation and requiring development of infrastructure for street lights, public water works and other related activities.

At the all-India level, industry is expected to maintain its share in energy consumption at around 35 per cent as per data in EPS Vol. I. While domestic and commercial categories would increase their share by three percentage points to 38 per cent, “Others” would find their share go down from 30 per cent to 27 per cent.

Urban CitiesMethodology
As in case of EPS (Volume-I) , the EPS of mega cities has been carried out by using partial end use methodology which is combination of trend and end use. The forecast of consumption in respect of domestic and commercial category has been undertaken by trend analysis combined with growth rate and other factors governing the electricity demands. The forecast for industrial category as well as "others" which include industrial, public lighting, public water works, irrigation and bulk supply is based on end use details and the programme of development furnished by state utilities.

The input data for conducting EPS has been furnished by state transmission utilities (transcos) in coordination with discoms and other concerned organisations responsible for development of infrastructure. The requisite long term data was not available with most of the discoms as these discoms were formed as a follow up of the unbundling of SEBs. In case of Pune and Nagpur, discoms were able to provide actual data of only past two years. Year 2010-11 was taken as base year for EPS of the mega cities.

The information contained in Master Plans of various cities have also been broadly taken into consideration for estimating the growth in energy requirement after assessment of the growth rate of infrastructure and other developmental activities programmed for implementation in next 5 to 10 years. In case of cities like Greater Mumbai, Kolkata, Ahmedabad and Surat electricity distribution is under the purview of more than one discom. The EPS has been carried out for each discom and based on which consolidated forecast for each city has been prepared. The report has been prepared after scrutinizing of input data and adopting suitable growth rates and considering other factors governing the growth of electricity demand.

The total electrical energy requirement (EER) of each city has been worked out by adding the estimated T&D losses into the projections of electricity consumption of various categories such as domestic, commercial, industrial, public water work, public lighting, railways and bulk supply and transmission and distribution losses.

The projections for growth of electricity demand and reduction on T&D losses are based on the developmental plans and other steps either already initiated or programmed during next five years by concerned state utilities. Therefore matching growth of infrastructure for augmentation of T&D network and other measures etc. would be necessary for meeting the targets for reduction in T&D losses as indicated in EPS.

Untitled Document
Electrical Energy Requirementat Power Station BusBar
(million kwh)

Terminal year of
% tototal

11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan 11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan
Lucknow 4,840 6,796 9,074 4.4 4.3 4.2
Kanpur 3,046 4,023 5,131 2.8 2.6 2.4
Jaipur 3,905 6,743 10,683 3.5 4.3 4.9
Ahmedabad 7,862 11,133 16,097 7.1 7.1 7.4
Surat 8,029 11,053 15,225 7.3 7.0 7.0
Nagpur 2,311 3,193 4,820 2.1 2.0 2.2
Indore 2,007 3,325 5,292 1.8 2.1 2.4
Pune 7,760 12,819 21,111 7.0 8.2 9.7
GreaterMumbai 22,107 30,568 43,039 20.0 19.5 19.8
Hyderabad 13,528 20,652 29,730 12.2 13.2 13.7
Chennai 15,273 21,434 26,236 13.8 13.7 12.1
Bangaluru 12,300 16,260 21,219 11.1 10.4 9.8
Kolkata 15,528 20,006 25,588 14.0 12.8 11.8
Total 110,635 156,873 217,147 100.0 100.0 100.0