The market for power
conductors is set to boom
in the XII Plan period
thanks to a much higher
power transmission
outlay. With private sector
companies lending a
supporting hand in mega
transmission lines,
demand for power
conductors is expected to
soar. It is not just a case
of volumes growth, power
conductors in the coming
years will be even more
technologically advanced,
notes
Venugopal Pillai.
The power conductor industry is very likely to see
impressive growth in the XII Plan period, thanks to a
much higher outlay for the power transmission sector.
According to estimates, the power transmission sector is
expected to see investment of
2,40,000 crore during the XII
Plan period, which would be over 70 per cent higher than the
comparable
1,40,000 crore in the ongoing XI Plan period.
Power generation, which has been the focus in the X and XI
Plan periods, is seen making way for power transmission &
distribution in the XII Plan. Needless to say, the power conductor industry stands to gain tremendously.
According to industry experts, 25 per cent of the total cost
of a typical power transmission project is towards
conductors. Going by this, the business opportunity size for
power conductors in the XII Plan would be Rs.60,000 crore.
The total opportunity arena could be much higher than this
considering that conductors also find minor application in
power distribution (sub-transmission) projects. Given that
the total investment outlay on power distribution in the XII
Plan is
4,00,060 crore, even if one considers a small fraction
of this outlay, the total opportunity size for power
conductors in the XII Plan could even be in the region of
70,000 crore.
Preliminary estimates suggest that the total expenditure
on power conductors in the ongoing XI Plan period would be
in the region of
31,000 crore. This lower-than-anticipated
figure is possibly because several mega power transmission
schemes on which physical construction work was expected
to begin in this Plan period, are seen spilling over to the XII
Plan period. Nevertheless, one can safely assume that the
market for power conductors would roughly double between
the XI and XII Plan periods.
POWER SECTOR OUTLAY |
(` crore) |
|
XI Plan |
XII Plan |
Generation |
591,734 |
495,082 |
Transmission |
140,000 |
240,000 |
Distribution |
309,077 |
400,060 |
Others |
18,104 |
--- |
Total |
1,059,515 |
1,135,142 |
ROLE OF PGCIL
Central transmission utility Power Grid Corporation of India
is the single-largest buyer of power conductors in India. It is
estimated that PGCIL accounts for 40 per cent of the total
domestic consumption of power conductors. The good news
for power conductor manufacturers is that PGCIL, in line
with overall trends, will be substantially expanding its
investment outlay in the XII Plan period. PGCIL is expected
to incur
1,00,000 crore of capital expenditure in the said
period, which would nearly twice the estimated
55,000
crore for the XI Plan period.
Typically, conductors account for 25 per cent of the total
capital expenditure of PGCIL. Going by this metric, PGCIL
alone would be providing a business opportunity of
25,000
crore to conductor suppliers in the XII Plan period.
PGCIL's main project is creation of the National Grid that
would seamlessly connect power-generating and power consuming
regions in the country. By March 2012, PGCIL is
expected to create inter-regional transfer capacity of 37,500
mw. This capacity currently stands at around 23,000 mw. The
National Grid envisages the use of extra high-voltage lines,
apart from the conventional 400kV lines. Hence, in the coming
years, the demand for conductors would be higher as the focus
would now be on 765kV, 800kV and even 1,200kV
transmission lines.
Apart from driving volume growth of conductor
manufacturers, PGCIL is also responsible for elevating
technical standards of power conductors. For instance, PGCIL
now stipulates high temperature-resistant conductors for its
projects, which currently only leading domestic suppliers are
currently capable of providing.
In volume terms, reliable estimates suggest that PGCIL
would have a "stringing" requirement of 16,000 km per year, for
the next five years. For a frame of reference, the comparable
requirement of state transmission utilities and independent
power transmission companies together would be 6,650 km
per year. While state utilities would be focusing on 220kV
lines, the thrust of PGCIL would be on 400kV and higher
voltage lines.
As of December 31, 2010, India had 132,413 ckm (circuit
km) of 220kV lines, 92 per cent owned by state government
utilities. As of the same date, the quantum of 440kV lines
stood at 102,912 ckm, out of which 66 per cent was under
Central ownership, mainly PGCIL. Central agencies did well
to more than double their 440kV network from 29,345 ckm
as of March 31, 2002 to 68,423 ckm as of December 31, 2010.
It is also noteworthy that private transmission lines,
including those set up in joint venture with government
utilities, have made a beginning in the XI Plan. As of
December 31, 2010, private sector or JV companies had 4,558
ckm of 400kV lines, apart from making a small contribution
to 220kV infrastructure.
Electrical Monitor undertook a study, based on official data,
on power conductor purchases by PGCIL. The study found
that during 2010 (January to December), the Central
transmission utility spent
1,107 crore on procuring
conductors, representing a significant share of the entire
procurement. Purchases were made from over ten suppliers
with Sterlite Technologies Ltd accounting for a little of 50 per
cent of the total value.
Bare conductor, insulated cable |
Bare overhead conductors used in power distribution can lead to
theft of electricity. However dangerous and lethal it could be,
overhead lines are "tapped" and electricity stolen. Electricity theft is
quite common in India, and is seen mainly in suburban areas. Over
the years, there has been a gradual move to shift from conductors to
cables, with a view to stemming electricity theft and also to address
other issues like safety.
In many urban areas, power utilities are converting overhead
distribution lines to underground extra-high voltage cables.
Underground cabling makes power theft virtually impossible. The
occurrence of faults also reduces drastically. Responding to the
need of producing EHV cables (usually exceeding 66kV), several
Indian cable manufacturers have tied up with leading global names
to produce EHV cables, even exceeding 220kV. Some such
partnerships that recent years have seen are: Prysmian of Italy with
Ravin Cables; J-Power of Japan with Finolex, Nexans of France with
Polycab, Brugg Kabel of Germany with KEI Industries, etc. Till the
advent of multinationals, Cable Corporation of India Ltd was the sole
Indian producer of EHV cables. Diamond Power Infrastructure Ltd, a
leading name in conductors, has also planned to produce EHV
cables in foreign technical collaboration.
Laying underground EHV cables is much costlier than setting up
overhead lines. The process of digging also interferes with other
underground utility infrastructure like water pipes, sewerage lines,
telecom cables, etc. All the same, power utilities are keen on
underground cabling wherever possible. The fact that underground
cables obviate power theft, their benefits in the long-term are
immense.
In areas where laying underground EHV cables is impracticable,
there is an alternative called aerial bunched cables (ABC) which are
used in place of bare overhead conductors. Apart from power theft,
the use of aerial bunched cables has several advantages like high
degree of safety, lower fault rates, flexibility in relocation, etc.
Some experts feel that bare overhead distribution conductors
would eventually be replaced by insulated cables (either
underground or overhead), in the coming years. The long-term
positive impact of insulated carriers of electricity is too significant to
be ignored, they feel. |
THE SUPPLY SIDE
The Indian market for power conductors is by and large an
organized one, with three players dominating the market.
Sterlite Technologies Ltd is by far the industry leader,
followed by Apar Industries Ltd and Diamond Power
Infrastructure Ltd. These three companies together account
for 70 per cent of India's power conductor market, with the
remaining 30 per cent shared by a large number of smaller
players spread nationwide. As
of today, the power conductor
market is estimated at some
5,600 crore.
Sterlite is currently the
largest manufacturer of
power conductors in the
world with a cumulative
annual manufacturing
capacity of 160,000 tonnes
per annum (tpa), across three
facilities in Rakholi (Dadra &
Nagar Haveli), Hardwar
(Uttarakhand) and
Jharsuguda (Orissa). In
keeping with the growing
demand for power
conductors in both the
domestic and international
markets, Sterlite is
considering further expansion of capacity to 200,000 tpa.
STL is a significant contributor to the global power sector
through indigenous manufacture of a complete range of power
transmission conductors at extra high voltages (400kV to
800kV), high voltages (66kV to 220kV) and power distribution
conductors (11kV- 33kV). Back home, it is estimated that
PGCIL meets nearly 35 per cent of its requirements from
supplies made by Sterlite.
Sterlite: Forward leap |
Sterlite Technologies Ltd, which is India's largest power
conductor manufacturer with an incipient capacity of 2 lakh
tpa, is fast emerging as a leading independent power transmission
company. As of mid-March 2011, STL had won three mega interstate
power transmission lines, including two 765kV and one
400kV, through tariff-based competitive bidding. The company
would be developing over 2,000 km of power transmission
corridors through these three projects with a combined
investment of around `3,000 crore.
|
Mumbai-headquartered Apar Industries Ltd ranks second in
the power conductor business. Currently, it has an installed
capacity of 73,000 tpa coming from two units- at Silvassa
(Dadra & Nagar Haveli) and at Natagarh (Himachal Pradesh).
Apar has planned to increase the capacity of its Silvassa unit by
10,000 tpa. It is also planning a greenfield unit in Orissa with
an investment of
25 crore. Both the projects will add around
25,000 tpa of capacity, in the first phase. The 10,000-tpa
capacity expansion at the Silvassa unit will be towards hightemperature
conductors, and is expected to commission very
soon while the greenfield Orissa unit is likely to turn
operational by September this year.
Gujarat-based Diamond Power Infrastructure Ltd is believed
to the third largest player in the Indian power conductor
market, with an installed capacity of 50,500 tpa. It has two
units, situated at Savli (Gujarat) and Silvassa (Dadra & Nagar Haveli). The conductor business of DPIL benefits from the
company's own aluminium wire rod unit. Apart from power
conductors, DPIL is engaged in several other areas like wires,
power cables, transformers, transmission towers and EPC
contracts in the T&D sector.
With growing demand for power conductors in the XII
Plan and beyond, it is expected that even smaller players
would ramp up capacities. Even newer companies could join
the manufacturing pool. However, by current thinking, the
three aforementioned companies are expected to control
over 50 per cent of the power conductor market in the
foreseeable future.
TECHNOLOGY
In recent years, the power conductor industry is seen imbibing
technological advancements with the help of global solution
providers. Two cases in point are those involving international
companies like CTC Cable (a subsidiary of Composite
Technology Corp) and 3M.
In December last year, CTC Cable agreed to an
initial six-year partnership with Sterlite Technologies
under which Sterlite will manufacture CTC's
ACCC conductors for sale in the Indian market. Under the
terms of the deal, which can be extended beyond
six years, CTC Cable can also work with Sterlite
to manufacture ACCC conductors in other markets
as well.
ACCC conductors use CTC's carbon fiber core, which is
delivered to manufacturers who produce and distribute
ACCC conductors to operators of electrical grids around the
world. ACCC conductor technology increases current
delivery and reduces transmission losses, therfore being ideal for both upgrading existing power lines as well as building
new ones, it is learnt.
Aluminium versus Copper |
With the recent meteoric rise in copper prices, designers,
specifiers and installers are finding that aluminium is
cheaper than copper when used in power cables. There are
however certain important consideration to keep in mind. Both
aluminium and copper conductor types are available and used in
power electric cables in South Africa. Naturally cables using
aluminium conductors would require a larger conductor size, and
would have a greater OD than cables using copper conductors, for the
same current.
For example, to carry a 3-phase current of 210A (ground), one
would need a 70m² x 4 core copper conductor cable. The equivalent
aluminium cable would be a 120mm² x 4 core. The cost of the copper
conductor would be more than twice of the aluminium equivalent.
While the price advantage seems to make changing over to
aluminium an obvious choice, there are certain factors which need to
be carefully considered. Most accessories (lugs, ferrules,
connectors etc) and electrical equipment (circuit breakers, fuse
holders, switches, etc) are generally designed for use with copper
conductors. When using Aluminium conductors with such
equipment, special bimetallic accessories (ferrules and lugs) must
be used to avoid the connection becoming loose and resulting in a
high resistance connection (or 'hot' connection).
This looseness is caused by the different temperature coefficients
of expansion between copper and aluminium that happens during
heat cycling. On cooling an aluminium conductor in a copper ferrule
will contract more than the copper, becoming loose and soon
thereafter becoming a 'hot' connection before burning off.
There has been extensive experience of this and in some cases
serious fires have been the result. When crimping copper ferrules or
lugs, indent crimping is common on small sizes, while hex crimping
is used on larger conductor sizes. It is important that the correct die
type and size is used. In addition the tools must be compatible with
the crimping tool. When crimping aluminium ferrules or lugs, deep
indent crimping is preferable, in order to break the aluminium oxide
layer which will have formed on the conductor.
Whilst aluminium is claimed to exhibit excellent corrosion
resistance, this is true only for dry indoor situations, or where drying
is rapid in outdoor installations (for example on overhead lines).
Corrosion of aluminium conductors is a major problem in damp
outdoor installations. Exposed aluminium conductors must be kept
dry by sealing with heat shrink tubing or other covering. Remember
that outdoor minisubs, pavement kiosks, streetlamp pillar boxes etc
are usually not dry and the use of aluminium conductors in such
installations is not recommended.
Where vibration is present, and this includes connections to
electric motors, transformers, minisubs, etc, aluminium conductors
will be more susceptible to vibration cracking than copper. This
problem is well understood by overhead line engineers, who take
preventative measures by installing "Stockbridge" dampers on lines
where Aeolian vibration is possible. Vibration damage is even more
important when solid aluminium conductors are used.
With regards to electric cable, generally people tend to stick
with what they have in stock and where their skills are. So when a
lot of copper cable is being used, it would probably not be wise to
mix this with aluminium cable, unless the skills are available to
understand that different jointing and terminating technology is
needed for the different cable types, and not to confuse the
accessories for each type. (Adapted from a technical note
available on www.ecasa.co.za) |
Earlier, in November 2009, Tata Power Company, India's
oldest and largest private-sector electric utility, chose
installation of 3M Aluminum Conductor Composite
Reinforced (3M ACCR) to substantially increase electricity
transmission capacity on its 110kV Borivali- Malad and
Salsette-Saki transmission lines near Mumbai, in place of
existing ACSR conductors, without the need to construct
new transmission lines towers, as the right of way available
was inadequate. The innovative lightweight, sag-resistant
overhead conductor can carry twice the amount of
electricity compared with conventional steel conductors of
the same diameter.
SUMMARY & WAY FORWARD
Ideally speaking, every rupee invested in creating power
generation facilities needs a matching investment on the T&D
side. Historically, India has never kept up to this ratio with
T&D investment barely being half of that on the generation
side. It is only now that T&D is getting attention. The major
2,40,000 crore investment outlay for power transmission in
the XII Plan is an excellent manifestation of India's intent to
improve its transmission facilities. Even on the power
distribution side, the projected investment, which would be
over
4,00,000 crore in the next Plan period, seeks to
compensate for the long years of neglect.
The sheer growth in plan outlay for power
transmission would be the biggest demand driver for
power conductors. Large players would also benefit from
the exports market, with a strong demand seen in
developing African nations. Going forward, it is expected
that leading domestic conductor manufacturers would
significantly ramp up capacities to serve the growing
Indian and export markets. The XII Plan is likely to see
60,000 crore worth of business opportunity for power
conductors, a big jump from an estimated
31,500 crore
in the ongoing XI Plan period.
The power transmission industry is also witnessing
increasing private sector participation. Thus, India can look
forward to a new class of developers complementing
Central transmission utility Power Grid Corporation of
India. This will result in faster and stronger demand
creation for power conductors.
The coming years will also see the emergence of efficient
technology. With India expected to soon move to the
1,200kV regime, power conductors will need to be
technically far more superior. Besides, with right of way
being a perennial issue of concern mainly in urban areas,
replacement of existing conductors with superior ones,
without expanding the geographical footprint, will become
the norm. Already global names in advanced conductor
technology, such as 3M and CTC Cable, have made their
presence felt in India.
India is endowed with aluminium, and hence raw material
does not appear to be the concern. Besides, aluminium prices
are known to be lesser volatile than copper, which is much to
the benefit of conductor manufacturers. The production
process is not very complex, and hence there could be new
entrants in the manufacturing business, mainly for power
distribution conductors like AAC and AAAC. As power
distribution conductor manufacturers will need to deal mainly
with state distribution utilities, they would have to efficiently
manage their working capital requirements as payment cycles
of state utilities tend to get delayed.
Untitled Document
LEADING POWER CONDUCTOR COMPANIES |
Company |
Capacity |
Manufacturing Locations |
|
(tpa) |
|
Sterlite Technologies |
160,000 |
Orissa, Uttarakhand, D&N Haveli |
Apar Industries |
73,000 |
D&N Haveli, Himachal Pradesh |
Diamond Power & Infrastructure |
50,500 |
Gujarat, D&N Haveli |
Going forward, the case for using underground EHV cables
or overhead aerial bunched cables, in place of bare overhead
conductors, could get stronger. As more and more urban power
distribution circles get into private sector hands, the
inclination to use superior and cost-effective technology,
despite the high initial costs, would naturally get sharper. This
could somewhat diminish the market size for distribution
conductors, but all for a good cause. However, for power
transmission conductors, mainly ACSR conductors, prospects
are very encouraging. In summary, conductors are set to score
high in the Indian power play.