From 2011 to 2017 renewable
electricity generation should
expand by 1,840 terawatt-hours
(TWh), almost 60 per cent higher than
the 1,160 TWh growth registered over
the 2005-11 period, says "Medium-
Term Renewable Energy Market
Report 2012: Market Trends and
Projections to 2017" released recently
by International Energy Agency.
Global power generation from
renewable sources stood at 4,540 TWh
in 2011, 5.8 per cent higher than in
2010, and is projected to reach almost
6,400 TWh in 2017 (+5.8 per cent
annually).
The outlook results from the
persistence of supportive policy and
market frameworks as well as
increased economic pull for renewable
technologies, even as technology cost
developments, grid and system
integration issues, and the cost and
availability of financing will also
weigh as key variables.
Renewable deployment is starting
to transit from a phase in which it is
more reliant on subsidy support to one
in which projects are competing on
their own merits. In general,
established technologies such as large
and small hydropower, geothermal
and onshore wind compete well with
new coal- and gas-fired plants in many
areas. Small-scale distributed and offgrid
applications, such as biogas and
solar PV, enjoy good economic
attractiveness versus small diesel
generators. Moreover, residential solar
PV competes increasingly well with
retail prices in areas with good solar
resources. Ultimately, the
competitiveness of renewable
generation depends on local
conditions, cost structures, resources
and the prices of alternatives, making
global comparisons difficult. Yet,
renewable sources are clearly
becoming more economically
attractive in an increasing number of
countries and circumstances.
Non-hydro renewable deployment
is getting widespread, with growth
shifting beyond traditional support
markets in Europe. In 2017, the
number of countries with cumulative
renewable electricity capacities above
100 mw would be markedly more for
most non-hydro technologies.
Onshore wind, already widespread in
many countries in 2011, would be operational in at least 70 countries in
2017. Solar PV and bioenergy at the
100-mw level is expected to be in force
in around 45 countries by 2017, up
from about 25 and 35 respectively in
2011. Geothermal and CSP would be
established in roughly 15 countries
each by 2017, while offshore wind
should be in 11 countries.
Of the 710 GW of global renewable
electricity capacity addition expected
over 2011-17, China would account
for almost 40 per cent, or 270 GW,
with the USA (56 GW), India (39 GW),
Germany (32 GW) and Brazil (32 GW).
In 2017, non-OECD countries should
account for 65 per cent of hydropower
generation and almost 40 per cent of
non-hydro generation.
Untitled Document
WORLD RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GENERATION |
(TWh) |
|
2011 |
2012 |
2013 |
2014 |
2015 |
2016 |
2017 |
| Hydropower |
3,644 |
3,698 |
3,824 |
3,962 |
4,102 |
4,239 |
4,378 |
| Bioenergy |
308 |
352 |
387 |
421 |
457 |
494 |
532 |
| Wind |
447 |
527 |
617 |
705 |
807 |
927 |
1,065 |
| Onshore |
434 |
509 |
591 |
672 |
765 |
868 |
985 |
| Offshore |
12 |
18 |
26 |
33 |
43 |
58 |
80 |
| Solar PV |
65 |
102 |
131 |
164 |
198 |
236 |
279 |
| Solar CSP |
4 |
6 |
10 |
16 |
21 |
25 |
31 |
| Geothermal |
71 |
73 |
75 |
78 |
82 |
87 |
91 |
| Ocean |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
1 |
| Total |
4,539 |
4,759 |
5,046 |
5,347 |
5,668 |
6,009 |
6,377 |
| Note: Data for 2011 are estimates; Source: International Energy Agency |
HYDROPOWER
Hydropower production has grown
by 630 TWh since 2005, and in 2011 it
accounted for 80 per cent of total
renewable generation. Going forward,
hydropower will remain the largest
contributor to total renewable
generation. Although its share should
diminish over time, the absolute
increase in hydropower generation
accelerates versus the previous
decade. At 4,380 TWh in 2017, it
should account for almost 70 per cent
of renewable electricity output. Over
2011-17, hydropower generation
should grow on average by 120 TWh
per year (3.1 per cent) as capacity rises
from 1,070 GW to 1,300 GW.
On the regional level, RES in non-
OECD Asia would increase by 150 GW,
with China (110 GW) and India (13
GW) accounting for most of the
expansion. Large capacity additions
should also take place in Latin America
(32 GW), Brazil (21 GW); OECD Europe
(19 GW); and Africa (14 GW).
WIND POWER
Renewable energy technologies
outside of hydropower continue to
grow at a faster rate. Of these, wind
power (onshore and offshore) should
make the largest contribution to global
renewable electricity generation in
2017. Over 2011-17, wind power
should grow by 100 TWh per year
(15.6%). Onshore wind accounts for
90% of this growth, as its capacity rises
from 230 GW to over 460 GW. Onshore
wind has emerged as a mature
technology, which is increasingly
competitive with conventional
alternatives. China should lead
capacity growth adding 104 GW over
2011-17. USA should add 27 GW; India
17 GW, Brazil 8 GW and the UK 7 GW.
As a more nascent technology,
offshore wind faces larger deployment
challenges. Capacity should increase
significantly from a low base, from 4
GW in 2011 to 26 GW in 2017,
supported by generous incentives
from governments committed to
offshore development. Though the
availability of wind turbines should
not act as a bottleneck, tight markets
for other supply chain components,
such as subsea transmission cables
and construction vessels, may contain
development in some cases. Capacity
growth should be led by China (6.7
GW), UK (5.3 GW), Germany (3.8
GW) and France (1.5 GW).
BIOENERGY
Bioenergy should account for 8.3 per
cent of renewable power in 2017.
Power generation from bioenergy,
which includes solid biomass, biogas,
liquid biofuels and renewable
municipal waste, should rise by 37
TWh per year (9.6 per cent) as
capacity grows from 70 GW in 2011 to
119 GW in 2017. Increased use of
agricultural and municipal wastes in
dedicated power and co-generation
(i.e. electricity and heat production)
plants should drive the expansion,
with ample feedstock availability
acting as an enabler.
Capacity growth in bioenergy
should occur across a range of
countries, given the widespread
nature of feedstock. The largest
increments are projected in China (18
GW), USA and Brazil (3 GW each);
and Austria and India (+2 GW each).
SOLAR ENERGY
In 2017, solar technologies should
make a contribution of 4.9 per cent to
renewable generation. Of this, solar PV
should scale up the quickest. Solar PV
generation should grow by 35 TWh per
year (27.4 per cent) over 2011-17, as
capacity rises from 70 GW to 230 GW.
Installed capacity growth should be led
by China (32 GW), USA (21 GW),
Germany and Japan (20 GW each), and
Italy (11 GW). Given past boom-andbust
cycles in several countries, the
degree of dynamic approach to policy
support will remain a key forecast
variable. Power from geothermal
sources would remain a small segment
of renewable generation, at 1.4 per
cent. Geothermal generation should
grow by 3 TWh per year (4.2 per cent)
as capacity rises from 11 GW in 2011 to
14 GW in 2017.
OCEAN POWER
Given its relatively early stage of
maturity, ocean power is not expected
to contribute significantly to renewable
generation over the medium term. Most
deployment should continue at the
demonstration level.