Thermal power plants, mainly coal-based, will continue to form the backbone of India's power generation infrastructure. With the XI plan drawing to a close,
Venugopal Pillai, in this special study takes a look at India's thermal power capacity addition programme in the ongoing Plan period. It is heartening to note that the country is on course to achieving over 85 per cent of the targeted thermal power capacity. The study also takes a detailed note of the new paradigms in the thermal power equipment industry.
The X Plan period (2002-07) had seen the power sector
perform disastrously in terms of addition of new
capacity. Additions were less than half of the 41,110
mw capacity targeted for the period. The X Plan had
envisaged 25,417 mw of new thermal power generation
capacity, mainly in the government sector. As against this,
actual addition was only 12,114 mw. Fingers were pointed
at Central PSU Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd for the delay.
BHEL was responsible for a good part of the capacity
addition as it was the unanimous supplier to Central and
state government projects.
The ongoing XI Plan period (2007-12) therefore bequeathed
a huge backlog from its predecessor. Thanks to this and a host
of other factors, the current Plan period is in a much healthier
state. It appears, on the basis of various official data releases,
that the country might be able to add over 85 per cent of the
thermal power capacity envisaged for the Plan period. The
original target for thermal power capacity addition for the XI
Plan stood at 59,693 mw. In the first four years of the Plan
(2007-08 up to 2010-11) thermal power capacity addition
stood at 29,461 mw. As of March 31, 2011, a total of 33,378
mw of new thermal power capacity was under physical construction. Of this, 24,768 mw is likely to commission
during 2011-12. This means that the total thermal power
capacity added in the XI Plan would be in the region of 54,229
mw, representing a target achievement of 90 per cent.
THERMAL CAPACITY ADDITION: X PLAN |
|
Central |
State |
Private |
Total |
2002-03 |
2002-03 |
665 |
348 |
2,223 |
2003-04 |
710 |
652 |
0 |
1,362 |
2004-05 |
2,210 |
654 |
70 |
2,934 |
2005-06 |
500 |
428 |
661 |
1,589 |
2006-07 |
1,960 |
1,155 |
892 |
4,007 |
Total |
6,590 |
3,554 |
1,971 |
12,114 |
% share |
54.4 |
29.3 |
16.3 |
100.0 |
WHAT MAKES THE XI PLAN DIFFERENT?
On several counts, the XI Plan period defines a shift of
paradigm in India's power sector. Everything stands
transformed-right from thinking to planning to execution.
In terms of thermal power capacity addition, the key
changes have been: a gradual decline in market share of
BHEL as the main plant equipment supplier; the emergence
of a new class of suppliers that predominantly includes
Chinese companies; and the phenomenal growth in the
class of independent power producers (private sector power
generation companies). Thus, both on the equipment
supply side and the power plant ownership side, there is a
significant loosening of the traditional public sector grip.
In the X Plan period, private sector companies added only
16.3 per cent of the total thermal power capacity added. In
the first four years of the XI Plan period, this metric more
than doubled to 34 per cent. In the coming years, private
sector will consistently account for over half of the new
capacity envisaged.
BHEL: TIME TO REINVENT
BHEL, which was the sole supplier of equipment for thermal
power plants, is gradually seeing its market share decline.
This fall only reflects the fact that the Central PSU
engineering giant could not have kept pace with India's
power capacity demands. BHEL had a share of around 85 per
cent in new thermal power capacity added in the X Plan
period and this is expected to fall to 62 per cent in the XI Plan
period, according to projections made by Electrical Monitor.
On its part, BHEL is taking steps to improve its prospects
in the thermal power equipment space in the wake of
competition from private and foreign suppliers, including
those from China. BHEL is in the midst of a major capacity
expansion drive where it is not only expanding its overall
capacity but also improving its technological capabilities,
most important of which is manufacturing thermal power
equipment with supercritical parameters.
At the beginning of the XI Plan period, BHEL had an annual
manufacturing capacity of around 7,000 mw, which barely met the country's demands. It has embarked on a major
expansion drive aiming at capacity of 20,000 mw by 2012.
Fiscal year 2010-11 was eventful, seeing capital expenditure
of
1,771 crore-the highest in any year so far by BHEL. As of
March 2011, BHEL's capacity had reached 15,000 mw and the
PSU engineering giant was well on course to attaining the
20,000-mw mark by March 2012. As of end-March this year,
BHEL had commissioned 82 machines out of the 251
machines in its capacity expansion drive.
THERMAL POWER CAPACITY ADDITION: XI PLAN |
|
Central |
State |
Private |
Total |
(MW) |
2007-08 |
1,990 |
3,880 |
750 |
6,620 |
2008-09 |
750 |
852 |
883 |
2,485 |
2009-10 |
1,740 |
3,079 |
4,287 |
9,106 |
2010-11 |
3,740 |
2,581 |
4,930 |
11,251 |
(% share) |
2007-08 |
30.1 |
58.6 |
11.3 |
100.0 |
2008-09 |
30.2 |
34.3 |
35.5 |
100.0 |
2009-10 |
19.1 |
33.8 |
47.1 |
100.0 |
2010-11 |
33.2 |
22.9 |
43.8 |
100.0 |
BHEL's inevitable decline in market share is already
perceptible. Estimates released by the Union power
ministry indicate that in thermal power projects targeted to
commission in the XII Plan period for which orders for main
plant machinery have been placed, BHEL has a share of 41.4
per cent that is even lower than of Chinese suppliers. The
Central PSU has lost out on business in both conventional
and supercritical power equipment.
Apart from the imminent capacity expansion that would
enable BHEL to bid for a larger number of projects in future,
BHEL has outlined two important strategies—equipment
financing and joint ventures-in a bid to regain its lost
market share. It is also important to note that BHEL is
trying to find new business areas, power transmission for
instance, to diversify its business portfolio.
Equipment financing: Thanks to its huge reserves of
nearly
10,000 crore, BHEL has proposed to set up a
financing arm. Under this model, BHEL would finance
power generation projects in the private sector, with the
understanding that orders for main plant equipment would
be placed with the engineering company. This financing
arm proposal, for which consultants have already been
appointed, should be formalized in the near future.
Joint ventures: As mentioned earlier, BHEL has lost out
on much supercritical equipment business because the
company took much longer than anticipated to equip itself
with technology. This delay has ushered in a slew of foreign
suppliers—Russian, Chinese and Japanese. To be able to
"secure" supercritical equipment orders, BHEL has proposed
to set up joint ventures with state-owned power generation
companies. Under this agreement, BHEL would be a
minority partner with 26 per cent equity stake and also the
deemed supplier of main plant equipment. Agreements of
this type have been reached with power generation utilities
in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. Discussions are on with Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra
Pradesh. Analysts agree that this has by far been the biggest
move by BHEL to secure supercritical equipment business
and also initiate its role as an independent power producer.
Order book: During 2010-11, BHEL received orders
worth
46,393 crore in the power sector and its overall order
book position, as of March 31, 2011, stood at a whopping
1,64,130 crore with the power sector accounting for
around 70 per cent.
BHEL's declining market share is evident in physical
terms. In 2010-11, BHEL's power sector orders
corresponded to a capacity of 15,071 mw, which has been a
steady decline from 16,489 mw in 2009-10 and 17,020 mw
in 2008-09. In value terms, however, BHEL's power sector
order inflow of
46,393 crore in 2010-11 was much higher
than
41,976 crore in 2009-10 and
44,407 crore in 2008-09.
This only indicates that
BHEL has been getting
higher per-mw
realization, ostensibly
because it has begun
supplying supercritical
power equipment.
BHEL'S ORDER INFLOW* |
|
MW |
`crore |
2008-09 |
17,020 |
44,407 |
2009-10 |
16,489 |
41,976 |
2010-11 |
15,071 |
46,393 |
*only power sector |
While public sector
projects have been the
thrust area for BHEL,
the engineering firm is beginning to witness a growing
stream of private sector orders. While statistics for 2010-11
are not yet available, in 2009-10, BHEL witnessed an
unprecedented 80 per cent private sector share in the power
order inflow.
According to an analysis carried out by Electrical Monitor,
BHEL is supplying equipment worth 20,820 mw to thermal
power projects currently under construction and expected
to commission by March 2012. This gives it a market share
of 62 per cent.
Official statistics indicate that orders for new thermal
power capacity worth 67,016 mw have been placed, with
commissioning targeted in the XII Plan. Out of this, BHEL
has received orders worth 27,746 mw, or 41 per cent.
AHEAD OF SCHEDULETill the advent of the private sector, commissioning of a
power plant before schedule was an unknown phenomenon.
A gestation period of six to seven years for a commercialscale
thermal power plant was considered perfectly normal.
With the advent of the private sector, gestation period are
getting compressed. This has been due to faster availability
of equipment, better project planning and scientific project
implementation techniques. It is not just with private sector
companies, even public sector entities like NTPC and
Damodar Valley Corporation are commissioning their
power plants in significantly shorter schedules.
In 2010-11 alone, at least 1,200 mw of new thermal power
capacity came on stream ahead of schedule. This was a significant 10 per cent of the total capacity commissioned in
that year. More than half of this capacity was from private
sector entities. In 2011-12, the terminal year of the XI Plan
period, a similar feat is expected. For instance, private
developers of the Sasan and Mundra ultra mega power
projects are hopeful of commissioning some power units in
2011-12, making it at least two years ahead of schedule.
UPCOMING SUPERCRITICAL POWER PROJECTS* |
Promoter |
Project |
Unit |
Total |
Location |
BTG Supplier |
|
|
Rating |
Capacity |
|
|
|
|
(MW) |
|
|
NTPC |
Barh-I |
660 |
1,980 |
Bihar |
Technoprom, Russia |
NTPC |
Barh-II |
660 |
1,320 |
Bihar |
BHEL |
NTPC** |
Sipat-I |
660 |
1,980 |
Chhattisgarh |
BHEL |
Mahagenco |
Koradi |
660 |
1,980 |
Maharashtra |
L&T-MHI |
Reliance Power |
Sasan UMPP |
660 |
3,960 |
Madhya Pradesh |
Shanghai Electric |
Reliance Power |
Krishnapatnam UMPP |
660 |
3,960 |
Andhra Pradesh |
Shanghai Electric |
Tata Power |
Mundra UMPP |
800 |
4,000 |
Gujarat |
Doosan + Toshiba |
Adani Power** |
Mundra-II |
660 |
1,320 |
Gujarat |
SEPCO-III, China |
Adani Power |
Mundra-III |
660 |
1,980 |
Gujarat |
SEPCO-III, China |
Jaiprakash Group |
Bara |
660 |
1,980 |
Uttar Pradesh |
BHEL |
Jaiprakash Group |
Nigri |
660 |
1,320 |
Madhya Pradesh |
L&T-MHI |
*Only projects under physical construction **partially commissioned (Note:List may not be exhaustive) |
Industry experts feel that better project management
skills, which are rapidly evolving in India's power sector,
will contribute towards even faster project execution in the
years ahead.
ROLE OF CHINA
A defining episode of India's power sector in recent years has
been the blazing entry of Chinese equipment. What began as
sporadic orders for low-rating equipment has now turned
into a formidable stream of sophisticated machinery being
ordered by India's biggest private power producers. The flow
of Chinese equipment looks like an unstoppable
phenomenon, whatever be the concerns revolving on inferior
quality, lack of sales support, non-availability of spares, etc.
It is estimated that India has placed more orders on Chinese
equipment than on domestic supplier BHEL, insofar as
thermal power equipment for XII Plan projects go. The power
ministry has estimated that orders have been placed for
67,016 mw worth of thermal power projects targeted to
commission during the XII Plan period. Out of this China has
to its credit 28,740 mw, accounting for 43 per cent. By the
same comparison, BHEL had orders worth a lower 27,746 mw.
ORDERS FOR THERMAL POWER PLANTS* |
Supplier |
MW |
% share |
DOMESTIC |
BHEL |
27,746 |
41.4 |
Others |
6,150 |
9.2 |
Sub-total |
33,896 |
50.6 |
INTERNATIONAL |
China |
28,740 |
42.9 |
Others |
4,380 |
6.5 |
Sub-total |
33,120 |
49.4 |
Grand Total |
67,016 |
100.0 |
*Plants under construction and expected to commission in XII Plan |
According to an analysis made by Electrical Monitor based
on official statistics, Chinese equipment accounts for
20,820 mw of thermal power capacity currently under
construction and likely to commission by the end of the XI
Plan period. This is out of a total of 33,378 mw. Some plants
using Chinese equipment have already been commissioned.
Taking this into account, around 35 per cent of new thermal capacity commissioned in the XI Plan period would be
based on Chinese equipment. Prominent suppliers from
China have been Dong Fang, Shanghai Electric, SEPCO III,
to name a few.
Leading independent power producers like Reliance
Power, Adani Power, GMR Group and Sterlite Energy have
placed an abundance of orders on Chinese suppliers. In fact,
China-made equipment would form the backbone of the
thermal power ambitions of these emerging IPPs.
In October last year, Anil Ambani-controlled Reliance
Power signed a historic deal with Shanghai Electric Group
Company (SEC) for the supply of 36 coal-fired supercritical
units aggregating 30,000 mw, over a ten-year period. The deal
was worth $8.3 billion, making it amongst the single-largest
power deals globally. Taking into account equipment sourced
from SEC in the past, the deal is worth over $10 billion.
Electrical Monitor feels that this deal can potentially change
the way India has looked at Chinese suppliers, no matter
what the downside of Chinese power equipment is.
A growing endorsement to Chinese equipment had first
come in November 2009 when Lanco Group placed a
10,000-crore order on Dong Fang Electric for six
supercritical power units of 660-mw each. Even Adani
Power has largely been in favour of Chinese equipment
and so has Vedanta Group company Sterlite Energy. Adani
Power is currently building at least nine supercritical
power units of 660-mw each-in Maharashtra and Gujaratall
sourced from Chinese vendors. Sterlite Energy has
sourced main plant equipment from SEPCO-III for its
4x600-mw Jharsuguda power plant in Orissa, the first IPP
project in the eastern state. Two units out of the four are
already in operation.
The reasons for Indian power developers favouring
Chinese equipment are not far to seek. It is established that
India's mainstay equipment supplier BHEL is overloaded
and there are no immediate domestic alternatives. China
today has the ability to deliver thermal power equipmentboth
sub-critical and supercritical-with minimum lead
time. Plus, equipment from China is at least 20 per cent
cheaper than any alternative, domestic or imported. These
have been virtues that Indian power producers find
irresistible. Of late, China has also been offering attractive
financing options, making the case strongly in favour of
Sino equipment even stronger.
India has never banned the import of Chinese equipment
but at the same time has not been able to control it.
Domestic players like BHEL and Larsen & Toubro have since
long demanded the imposition of a higher import duty for
Chinese power gear, but to no avail. One has to tacitly
understand that Chinese equipment will be responsible for
at least 30 per cent of the new thermal power generation
capacity that will be created in the XI and XII Plan periods.
In this sense, it is helping India reach its power capacity
targets. Imposition of additional import duty could be
counterproductive, whatever be the argument against
Chinese equipment, industry experts feel.
THERMAL POWER EQUIPMENT: NEW ENTRANTS |
Company |
Equity |
Techno-Financial Partner |
Equity |
Capacity |
Location |
Scope of activities |
|
(%) |
|
(%) |
(MW) |
|
|
NTPC |
50 |
BHEL |
50 |
5,000 |
Andhra Pradesh |
Main plant equipment, BoP, EPC contracting |
Larsen & Toubro* |
51 |
Mitsubishi Heavy Inds, Japan |
49 |
6,000 |
Gujarat |
Supercritical boilers & turbine-generators |
JSW Group |
25 |
Toshiba, Japan |
75 |
3,000 |
Tamil Nadu |
Supercritical turbine-generators |
Bharat Forge |
49 |
Alstom, France |
51 |
5,000 |
Gujarat |
Supercritical turbine-generators, auxiliaries |
Thermax |
51 |
Babcock & Wilcox, USA |
49 |
3,000 |
Maharashtra |
Supercritical boilers |
BGR Energy Systems |
70 |
Hitachi Power Eqpt, Germany |
30 |
4,000 |
Tamil Nadu |
Supercritical boilers & turbine-generators |
*Separate JVs for boilers and turbine-generators |
Central and state government power utilities have not
sought Chinese equipment per se, but ironically enough, it
is making a backdoor entry through EPC contracts placed
on private sector contractors. A striking case in point is
Damodar Valley Corporation, a Central PSU, which always
ordered its main plant equipment on BHEL. When DVC
decided to adopt the EPC contract route to build its 1,200-
mw Raghunathpur coal-based project in West Bengal, it
ended up selecting Reliance Infrastructure Ltd, which in
turn, ordered main plant equipment from China. Similar
cases have been observed with some state government
utilities as well. The debate for and against Chinese power
equipment can go on incessantly. However, the ground
reality remains that the flow of Chinese equipment in the
country, at least at the moment, is continuing unabated.
THE THIRD ESTATE
The XII Plan period will see the creation of the third estate
of power manufacturing equipment. It will comprise of
over six entities-mainly joint ventures with multinationalsthat
together aim to create power equipment capacity of at
least 25,000 mw. This, for a frame of reference, is
comparable to the size of BHEL. The XII Plan period and
beyond, will therefore see India's thermal power capacity
addition being serviced by three forces—BHEL, Chinese
suppliers and the new crop of equipment makers. By 2014-
15 or so, India's domestic equipment capacity for thermal
power plants should be around 50,000 mw per year, easily
meeting the local demand. This might greatly reduce the
dependence on imports from China, provided that the
incipient capacity meets the attributes of cost-effectiveness
and timely delivery. It is encouraging to see that almost all
the joint ventures will be equipped with technology for
delivering supercritical thermal power equipment, which is
expected to be the technology of choice for all new thermal
(coal-based) power projects to be built in the XIII Plan
period and thereafter.
Here is a summary of the current status of some of the
new entrants in the thermal power equipment
manufacturing space.
L&T-MHI: Larsen & Toubro in 2008 entered into an
agreement with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan to set
up two separate joint ventures for supercritical boilers and
supercritical turbine-generators, respectively. In January
this year, the two units were commissioned with an initial
capacity of 5,000 mw, to be scaled up to 6,000 mw by 2012.
Both the plants are located at Hazira in Gujarat. The L&TMHI
combine has already won a significant number of
orders for supply of supercritical thermal power equipment.
Its biggest order has been from Mahagenco for the supply of
equipment relating to the 3x660-mw Koradi supercritical
power plant in Nagpur district. Orders have also been
placed by private sector, for instance the 2x660-mw Nigre
supercritical power project in Madhya Pradesh of the
Jaiprakash Group.
Bharat Forge-Alstom: Coming up at Mundra in
Gujarat, the new joint venture turbine-generator plant of
Bharat Forge (49 per cent) and Alstom (51 per cent) is
expected to be ready by 2013. It will produce equipment
worth 5,000 mw annually. The joint venture has been
actively bidding for equipment supply contracts and in the
race for supplying supercritical gear for projects of NTPC
and Damodar Valley Corporation.
NTPC-BHEL: A very significant joint venture, NTPCBHEL
Projects Pvt Ltd represents the coming together of
two biggest PSUs in the ministries of power and heavy
industries, respectively. The two partners intend to invest
6,000 crore to create 5,000 mw of equipment capacity by 2014. Apart from main plant equipment, the JV will also
look at EPC and balance-of-plant contracting. The JV has
already begun booking orders relating to EPC contracting
and balance-of-plant services. NTPC that is aiming at a
power generation portfolio of 75,000 mw by 2017 is likely to
place orders on this JV, apart from BHEL.
Thermax-Babcock & Wilcox: Thermax Babcock
Wilcox Energy Solutions, a joint venture between Thermax
and US-based Babcock & Wilcox, is setting up a plant with
an investment of
120 crore for supercritical boilers.
Coming up at Satara in Maharashtra, the plant spread over
125 acres is likely to start production by June 2012.
BGR Energy-Hitachi: Chennai-based BGR Energy and
Hitachi Power Europe of Germany have come together to
form two separate joint venture for manufacture of
supercritical boilers and turbine-generators respectively.
The facilities, coming up near Chennai, are likely to turn
commercial in the next two years. Debt mobilization is
currently underway and the joint ventures are participating
in the bidding process for supercritical power equipment.
THE WAY AHEAD
The X Plan period (2002-07) was a great learning experience
for the Indian power sector, although there was no
demonstrable progress in terms of augmenting power
generation capacity. The XI Plan (2007-12) is bound to be
much better on all counts. To begin with, the country
would be witnessing, for the first time ever, thermal power
capacity addition averaging a little over 10,000 mw per year.
When seen against 12,114 mw of new thermal power
capacity added in the entire X Plan period, which was then
the best performance ever, the achievement is laudable.
Apart from the physical progress that the thermal power
sector has seen in the XI Plan, much has changed with
respect to the entire endeavour of power capacity addition.
In olden days, setting up of thermal power plants was more
of a slow-moving tripartite activity between Central
government agencies, state electricity boards and Bharat
Heavy Electricals Ltd. The public sector bastion is now
demolished with private sector participation seen across
the board—ownership of power plants, supply of
equipment, EPC contracting, O&M etc.
State owned power generation companies will gradually
move out of the activity of setting up power plants, but
instead award projects to the private sector through tariffbased
competitive bidding. State utilities will also enter
into long-term power supply agreements, again using the
competitive bidding route. The growing involvement of
private sector is therefore inevitable and so is the subdued
role that state government entities will play in ownership
of power plants. When one looks at the 51,536 mw of
thermal power capacity currently under construction and
likely to commission in the XII Plan period, only 22 per cent
is in the state sector while 62 per cent is private.
In the foreseeable future, thermal power capacity of
around 12,000 mw will get added per year. This will
certainly bring about some relief to power shortages and
peak power deficit. On the other hand, the focus will then
shift, and should necessarily so, to efficient operation of
power plants. Issues like fuel management—mainly
securing coal linkages—will come to the fore. Considering
that India's thermal power capacity would have doubled
during the decade ending 2017, the country would need
expertise in operations and maintenance of power plants.
Besides, considerable efficiencies will have to be brought
about in power transmission and distribution.The mission
of energizing a nation starts with the setting up of a power
generation plant. While there are several links ahead in the
power chain, it is reassuring that India is taking its first step
very confidently.
SELECT MEGA THERMAL POWER PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION* |
Promoter |
Ownership |
Project |
Location |
MW |
BTG Supplier |
Tata Power |
Private |
Mundra UMPP |
Gujarat |
4,000 |
Doosan, Toshiba |
Reliance Power |
Private |
Krishnapatnam UMPP |
Andhra Pradesh |
4,000 |
SEC (China) |
Reliance Power |
Private |
Sasan UMPP |
Gujarat |
3,960 |
SEC (China) |
Jindal Power |
Private |
Raigarh |
Chhattisgarh |
2,400 |
BHEL |
NTPC |
Central |
Barh-I |
Bihar |
1,980 |
Technoprom, Russia |
Mahagenco |
State |
Koradi |
Maharashtra |
1,980 |
L&T |
Jaiprakash Group |
Private |
Prayagraj |
Uttar Pradesh |
1,980 |
BHEL |
APGenco+IL&FS |
State |
Krishnapatnam |
Andhra Pradesh |
1,600 |
BHEL, L&T-MHI |
Elena Power (IndiaBulls) |
Private |
Nashik |
Maharashtra |
1,350 |
BHEL |
Elena Power (IndiaBulls) |
Private |
Amravati |
Maharashtra |
1,350 |
BHEL |
NTPC |
Central |
Barh-II |
Bihar |
1,320 |
BHEL |
Jaiprakash Group |
Private |
Nigrie |
Madhya Pradesh |
1,320 |
BHEL |
RRVUNL |
State |
Kalisindh |
Rajasthan |
1,200 |
BGR Energy |
MPPGCL |
State |
Malwa |
Madhya Pradesh |
1,200 |
BHEL |
Essar Power |
Private |
Salaya |
Gujarat |
1,200 |
Harbin (China) |
Essar Power |
Private |
Mahan |
Madhya Pradesh |
1,200 |
Harbin (China) |
CLP India |
Private |
Jhajjar |
Haryana |
1,200 |
Sepco III (China) |
Jindal India Thermal Power |
Private |
Derang |
Orissa |
1,200 |
BHEL |
Coastal Energen |
Private |
Tuticorin |
Tamil Nadu |
1,200 |
Harbin (China) |
Monnet Power |
Private |
Malibrahmani |
Orissa |
1,050 |
BHEL |
GMR Energy |
Private |
Kamalanga |
Orissa |
1,050 |
Sepco III (China) |
*Expected to fully commission in XII Plan period |