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Thermal Power on Track

Venugopal Pillai ,  Monday, June 27, 2011, 16:13 Hrs  [IST]

Untitled - 30.jpgThermal power plants, mainly coal-based, will continue to form the backbone of India's power generation infrastructure. With the XI plan drawing to a close,Venugopal Pillai, in this special study takes a look at India's thermal power capacity addition programme in the ongoing Plan period. It is heartening to note that the country is on course to achieving over 85 per cent of the targeted thermal power capacity. The study also takes a detailed note of the new paradigms in the thermal power equipment industry.

The X Plan period (2002-07) had seen the power sector perform disastrously in terms of addition of new capacity. Additions were less than half of the 41,110 mw capacity targeted for the period. The X Plan had envisaged 25,417 mw of new thermal power generation capacity, mainly in the government sector. As against this, actual addition was only 12,114 mw. Fingers were pointed at Central PSU Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd for the delay. BHEL was responsible for a good part of the capacity addition as it was the unanimous supplier to Central and state government projects.

The ongoing XI Plan period (2007-12) therefore bequeathed a huge backlog from its predecessor. Thanks to this and a host of other factors, the current Plan period is in a much healthier state. It appears, on the basis of various official data releases, that the country might be able to add over 85 per cent of the thermal power capacity envisaged for the Plan period. The original target for thermal power capacity addition for the XI Plan stood at 59,693 mw. In the first four years of the Plan (2007-08 up to 2010-11) thermal power capacity addition stood at 29,461 mw. As of March 31, 2011, a total of 33,378 mw of new thermal power capacity was under physical construction. Of this, 24,768 mw is likely to commission during 2011-12. This means that the total thermal power capacity added in the XI Plan would be in the region of 54,229 mw, representing a target achievement of 90 per cent.

THERMAL CAPACITY ADDITION: X PLAN

Central
State
Private
Total
2002-03 2002-03 665 348 2,223
2003-04 710 652 0 1,362
2004-05 2,210 654 70 2,934
2005-06 500 428 661 1,589
2006-07 1,960 1,155 892 4,007
Total 6,590 3,554 1,971 12,114
% share 54.4 29.3 16.3 100.0


WHAT MAKES THE XI PLAN DIFFERENT?
On several counts, the XI Plan period defines a shift of paradigm in India's power sector. Everything stands transformed-right from thinking to planning to execution. In terms of thermal power capacity addition, the key changes have been: a gradual decline in market share of BHEL as the main plant equipment supplier; the emergence of a new class of suppliers that predominantly includes Chinese companies; and the phenomenal growth in the class of independent power producers (private sector power generation companies). Thus, both on the equipment supply side and the power plant ownership side, there is a significant loosening of the traditional public sector grip.

In the X Plan period, private sector companies added only 16.3 per cent of the total thermal power capacity added. In the first four years of the XI Plan period, this metric more than doubled to 34 per cent. In the coming years, private sector will consistently account for over half of the new capacity envisaged.

BHEL: TIME TO REINVENT
BHEL, which was the sole supplier of equipment for thermal power plants, is gradually seeing its market share decline. This fall only reflects the fact that the Central PSU engineering giant could not have kept pace with India's power capacity demands. BHEL had a share of around 85 per cent in new thermal power capacity added in the X Plan period and this is expected to fall to 62 per cent in the XI Plan period, according to projections made by Electrical Monitor.

On its part, BHEL is taking steps to improve its prospects in the thermal power equipment space in the wake of competition from private and foreign suppliers, including those from China. BHEL is in the midst of a major capacity expansion drive where it is not only expanding its overall capacity but also improving its technological capabilities, most important of which is manufacturing thermal power equipment with supercritical parameters.

At the beginning of the XI Plan period, BHEL had an annual manufacturing capacity of around 7,000 mw, which barely met the country's demands. It has embarked on a major expansion drive aiming at capacity of 20,000 mw by 2012. Fiscal year 2010-11 was eventful, seeing capital expenditure of Rs.jpg1,771 crore-the highest in any year so far by BHEL. As of March 2011, BHEL's capacity had reached 15,000 mw and the PSU engineering giant was well on course to attaining the 20,000-mw mark by March 2012. As of end-March this year, BHEL had commissioned 82 machines out of the 251 machines in its capacity expansion drive.

THERMAL POWER CAPACITY ADDITION: XI PLAN

Central
State
Private
Total
(MW)
2007-08 1,990 3,880 750 6,620
2008-09 750 852 883 2,485
2009-10 1,740 3,079 4,287 9,106
2010-11 3,740 2,581 4,930 11,251
(% share)
2007-08 30.1 58.6 11.3 100.0
2008-09 30.2 34.3 35.5 100.0
2009-10 19.1 33.8 47.1 100.0
2010-11 33.2 22.9 43.8 100.0

BHEL's inevitable decline in market share is already perceptible. Estimates released by the Union power ministry indicate that in thermal power projects targeted to commission in the XII Plan period for which orders for main plant machinery have been placed, BHEL has a share of 41.4 per cent that is even lower than of Chinese suppliers. The Central PSU has lost out on business in both conventional and supercritical power equipment.

Apart from the imminent capacity expansion that would enable BHEL to bid for a larger number of projects in future, BHEL has outlined two important strategies—equipment financing and joint ventures-in a bid to regain its lost market share. It is also important to note that BHEL is trying to find new business areas, power transmission for instance, to diversify its business portfolio.

Equipment financing: Thanks to its huge reserves of nearly Rs.jpg10,000 crore, BHEL has proposed to set up a financing arm. Under this model, BHEL would finance power generation projects in the private sector, with the understanding that orders for main plant equipment would be placed with the engineering company. This financing arm proposal, for which consultants have already been appointed, should be formalized in the near future.

Joint ventures: As mentioned earlier, BHEL has lost out on much supercritical equipment business because the company took much longer than anticipated to equip itself with technology. This delay has ushered in a slew of foreign suppliers—Russian, Chinese and Japanese. To be able to "secure" supercritical equipment orders, BHEL has proposed to set up joint ventures with state-owned power generation companies. Under this agreement, BHEL would be a minority partner with 26 per cent equity stake and also the deemed supplier of main plant equipment. Agreements of this type have been reached with power generation utilities in Tamil Nadu, Karnataka and Madhya Pradesh. Discussions are on with Gujarat, Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. Analysts agree that this has by far been the biggest move by BHEL to secure supercritical equipment business and also initiate its role as an independent power producer.

Order book: During 2010-11, BHEL received orders worth Rs.jpg46,393 crore in the power sector and its overall order book position, as of March 31, 2011, stood at a whopping Rs.jpg1,64,130 crore with the power sector accounting for around 70 per cent.

Untitled - 31.jpgBHEL's declining market share is evident in physical terms. In 2010-11, BHEL's power sector orders corresponded to a capacity of 15,071 mw, which has been a steady decline from 16,489 mw in 2009-10 and 17,020 mw in 2008-09. In value terms, however, BHEL's power sector order inflow of Rs.jpg46,393 crore in 2010-11 was much higher than Rs.jpg41,976 crore in 2009-10 and Rs.jpg44,407 crore in 2008-09. This only indicates that BHEL has been getting higher per-mw realization, ostensibly because it has begun supplying supercritical power equipment.

BHEL'S ORDER INFLOW*

MW
`crore
2008-09
17,020
44,407
2009-10
16,489
41,976
2010-11
15,071
46,393
*only power sector

While public sector projects have been the thrust area for BHEL, the engineering firm is beginning to witness a growing stream of private sector orders. While statistics for 2010-11 are not yet available, in 2009-10, BHEL witnessed an unprecedented 80 per cent private sector share in the power order inflow.

 According to an analysis carried out by Electrical Monitor, BHEL is supplying equipment worth 20,820 mw to thermal power projects currently under construction and expected to commission by March 2012. This gives it a market share of 62 per cent.

Official statistics indicate that orders for new thermal power capacity worth 67,016 mw have been placed, with commissioning targeted in the XII Plan. Out of this, BHEL has received orders worth 27,746 mw, or 41 per cent.

AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
Till the advent of the private sector, commissioning of a power plant before schedule was an unknown phenomenon. A gestation period of six to seven years for a commercialscale thermal power plant was considered perfectly normal. With the advent of the private sector, gestation period are getting compressed. This has been due to faster availability of equipment, better project planning and scientific project implementation techniques. It is not just with private sector companies, even public sector entities like NTPC and Damodar Valley Corporation are commissioning their power plants in significantly shorter schedules.

In 2010-11 alone, at least 1,200 mw of new thermal power capacity came on stream ahead of schedule. This was a significant 10 per cent of the total capacity commissioned in that year. More than half of this capacity was from private sector entities. In 2011-12, the terminal year of the XI Plan period, a similar feat is expected. For instance, private developers of the Sasan and Mundra ultra mega power projects are hopeful of commissioning some power units in 2011-12, making it at least two years ahead of schedule.
 
UPCOMING SUPERCRITICAL POWER PROJECTS*
Promoter Project Unit Total Location BTG Supplier
    Rating Capacity    
   
(MW)
   
NTPC Barh-I 660 1,980 Bihar Technoprom, Russia
NTPC Barh-II 660 1,320 Bihar BHEL
NTPC** Sipat-I 660 1,980 Chhattisgarh BHEL
Mahagenco Koradi 660 1,980 Maharashtra L&T-MHI
Reliance Power Sasan UMPP 660 3,960 Madhya Pradesh Shanghai Electric
Reliance Power Krishnapatnam UMPP 660 3,960 Andhra Pradesh Shanghai Electric
Tata Power Mundra UMPP 800 4,000 Gujarat Doosan + Toshiba
Adani Power** Mundra-II 660 1,320 Gujarat SEPCO-III, China
Adani Power Mundra-III 660 1,980 Gujarat SEPCO-III, China
Jaiprakash Group Bara 660 1,980 Uttar Pradesh BHEL
Jaiprakash Group Nigri 660 1,320 Madhya Pradesh L&T-MHI
*Only projects under physical construction **partially commissioned (Note:List may not be exhaustive)

Industry experts feel that better project management skills, which are rapidly evolving in India's power sector, will contribute towards even faster project execution in the years ahead.

ROLE OF CHINA
A defining episode of India's power sector in recent years has been the blazing entry of Chinese equipment. What began as sporadic orders for low-rating equipment has now turned into a formidable stream of sophisticated machinery being ordered by India's biggest private power producers. The flow of Chinese equipment looks like an unstoppable phenomenon, whatever be the concerns revolving on inferior quality, lack of sales support, non-availability of spares, etc.

It is estimated that India has placed more orders on Chinese equipment than on domestic supplier BHEL, insofar as thermal power equipment for XII Plan projects go. The power ministry has estimated that orders have been placed for 67,016 mw worth of thermal power projects targeted to commission during the XII Plan period. Out of this China has to its credit 28,740 mw, accounting for 43 per cent. By the same comparison, BHEL had orders worth a lower 27,746 mw.

ORDERS FOR THERMAL POWER PLANTS*
Supplier
MW
% share
DOMESTIC
BHEL 27,746 41.4
Others 6,150 9.2
Sub-total 33,896 50.6
INTERNATIONAL
China 28,740 42.9
Others 4,380 6.5
Sub-total 33,120 49.4
Grand Total 67,016 100.0
*Plants under construction and expected to commission in XII Plan

According to an analysis made by Electrical Monitor based on official statistics, Chinese equipment accounts for 20,820 mw of thermal power capacity currently under construction and likely to commission by the end of the XI Plan period. This is out of a total of 33,378 mw. Some plants using Chinese equipment have already been commissioned. Taking this into account, around 35 per cent of new thermal capacity commissioned in the XI Plan period would be based on Chinese equipment. Prominent suppliers from China have been Dong Fang, Shanghai Electric, SEPCO III, to name a few.

Leading independent power producers like Reliance Power, Adani Power, GMR Group and Sterlite Energy have placed an abundance of orders on Chinese suppliers. In fact, China-made equipment would form the backbone of the thermal power ambitions of these emerging IPPs.

In October last year, Anil Ambani-controlled Reliance Power signed a historic deal with Shanghai Electric Group Company (SEC) for the supply of 36 coal-fired supercritical units aggregating 30,000 mw, over a ten-year period. The deal was worth $8.3 billion, making it amongst the single-largest power deals globally. Taking into account equipment sourced from SEC in the past, the deal is worth over $10 billion. Electrical Monitor feels that this deal can potentially change the way India has looked at Chinese suppliers, no matter what the downside of Chinese power equipment is.

Untitled - 32.jpgA growing endorsement to Chinese equipment had first come in November 2009 when Lanco Group placed a Rs.jpg10,000-crore order on Dong Fang Electric for six supercritical power units of 660-mw each. Even Adani Power has largely been in favour of Chinese equipment and so has Vedanta Group company Sterlite Energy. Adani Power is currently building at least nine supercritical power units of 660-mw each-in Maharashtra and Gujaratall sourced from Chinese vendors. Sterlite Energy has sourced main plant equipment from SEPCO-III for its 4x600-mw Jharsuguda power plant in Orissa, the first IPP project in the eastern state. Two units out of the four are already in operation.

The reasons for Indian power developers favouring Chinese equipment are not far to seek. It is established that India's mainstay equipment supplier BHEL is overloaded and there are no immediate domestic alternatives. China today has the ability to deliver thermal power equipmentboth sub-critical and supercritical-with minimum lead time. Plus, equipment from China is at least 20 per cent cheaper than any alternative, domestic or imported. These have been virtues that Indian power producers find irresistible. Of late, China has also been offering attractive financing options, making the case strongly in favour of Sino equipment even stronger.

India has never banned the import of Chinese equipment but at the same time has not been able to control it. Domestic players like BHEL and Larsen & Toubro have since long demanded the imposition of a higher import duty for Chinese power gear, but to no avail. One has to tacitly understand that Chinese equipment will be responsible for at least 30 per cent of the new thermal power generation capacity that will be created in the XI and XII Plan periods. In this sense, it is helping India reach its power capacity targets. Imposition of additional import duty could be counterproductive, whatever be the argument against Chinese equipment, industry experts feel.

THERMAL POWER EQUIPMENT: NEW ENTRANTS
Company Equity Techno-Financial Partner Equity Capacity Location Scope of activities

(%)

(%)
(MW)


NTPC 50 BHEL 50 5,000 Andhra Pradesh Main plant equipment, BoP, EPC contracting
Larsen & Toubro* 51 Mitsubishi Heavy Inds, Japan 49 6,000 Gujarat Supercritical boilers & turbine-generators
JSW Group 25 Toshiba, Japan 75 3,000 Tamil Nadu Supercritical turbine-generators
Bharat Forge 49 Alstom, France 51 5,000 Gujarat Supercritical turbine-generators, auxiliaries
Thermax 51 Babcock & Wilcox, USA 49 3,000 Maharashtra Supercritical boilers
BGR Energy Systems 70 Hitachi Power Eqpt, Germany 30 4,000 Tamil Nadu Supercritical boilers & turbine-generators
*Separate JVs for boilers and turbine-generators

Central and state government power utilities have not sought Chinese equipment per se, but ironically enough, it is making a backdoor entry through EPC contracts placed on private sector contractors. A striking case in point is Damodar Valley Corporation, a Central PSU, which always ordered its main plant equipment on BHEL. When DVC decided to adopt the EPC contract route to build its 1,200- mw Raghunathpur coal-based project in West Bengal, it ended up selecting Reliance Infrastructure Ltd, which in turn, ordered main plant equipment from China. Similar cases have been observed with some state government utilities as well. The debate for and against Chinese power equipment can go on incessantly. However, the ground reality remains that the flow of Chinese equipment in the country, at least at the moment, is continuing unabated.

THE THIRD ESTATE
The XII Plan period will see the creation of the third estate of power manufacturing equipment. It will comprise of over six entities-mainly joint ventures with multinationalsthat together aim to create power equipment capacity of at least 25,000 mw. This, for a frame of reference, is comparable to the size of BHEL. The XII Plan period and beyond, will therefore see India's thermal power capacity addition being serviced by three forces—BHEL, Chinese suppliers and the new crop of equipment makers. By 2014- 15 or so, India's domestic equipment capacity for thermal power plants should be around 50,000 mw per year, easily meeting the local demand. This might greatly reduce the dependence on imports from China, provided that the incipient capacity meets the attributes of cost-effectiveness and timely delivery. It is encouraging to see that almost all the joint ventures will be equipped with technology for delivering supercritical thermal power equipment, which is expected to be the technology of choice for all new thermal (coal-based) power projects to be built in the XIII Plan period and thereafter.

Here is a summary of the current status of some of the new entrants in the thermal power equipment manufacturing space.

L&T-MHI: Larsen & Toubro in 2008 entered into an agreement with Mitsubishi Heavy Industries of Japan to set up two separate joint ventures for supercritical boilers and supercritical turbine-generators, respectively. In January this year, the two units were commissioned with an initial capacity of 5,000 mw, to be scaled up to 6,000 mw by 2012. Both the plants are located at Hazira in Gujarat. The L&TMHI combine has already won a significant number of orders for supply of supercritical thermal power equipment. Its biggest order has been from Mahagenco for the supply of equipment relating to the 3x660-mw Koradi supercritical power plant in Nagpur district. Orders have also been placed by private sector, for instance the 2x660-mw Nigre supercritical power project in Madhya Pradesh of the Jaiprakash Group.

Bharat Forge-Alstom: Coming up at Mundra in Gujarat, the new joint venture turbine-generator plant of Bharat Forge (49 per cent) and Alstom (51 per cent) is expected to be ready by 2013. It will produce equipment worth 5,000 mw annually. The joint venture has been actively bidding for equipment supply contracts and in the race for supplying supercritical gear for projects of NTPC and Damodar Valley Corporation.

NTPC-BHEL: A very significant joint venture, NTPCBHEL Projects Pvt Ltd represents the coming together of two biggest PSUs in the ministries of power and heavy industries, respectively. The two partners intend to invest Rs.jpg6,000 crore to create 5,000 mw of equipment capacity by 2014. Apart from main plant equipment, the JV will also look at EPC and balance-of-plant contracting. The JV has already begun booking orders relating to EPC contracting and balance-of-plant services. NTPC that is aiming at a power generation portfolio of 75,000 mw by 2017 is likely to place orders on this JV, apart from BHEL.

Thermax-Babcock & Wilcox: Thermax Babcock Wilcox Energy Solutions, a joint venture between Thermax and US-based Babcock & Wilcox, is setting up a plant with an investment of Rs.jpg120 crore for supercritical boilers. Coming up at Satara in Maharashtra, the plant spread over 125 acres is likely to start production by June 2012.

BGR Energy-Hitachi: Chennai-based BGR Energy and Hitachi Power Europe of Germany have come together to form two separate joint venture for manufacture of supercritical boilers and turbine-generators respectively. The facilities, coming up near Chennai, are likely to turn commercial in the next two years. Debt mobilization is currently underway and the joint ventures are participating in the bidding process for supercritical power equipment.

THE WAY AHEAD
The X Plan period (2002-07) was a great learning experience for the Indian power sector, although there was no demonstrable progress in terms of augmenting power generation capacity. The XI Plan (2007-12) is bound to be much better on all counts. To begin with, the country would be witnessing, for the first time ever, thermal power capacity addition averaging a little over 10,000 mw per year. When seen against 12,114 mw of new thermal power capacity added in the entire X Plan period, which was then the best performance ever, the achievement is laudable. Apart from the physical progress that the thermal power sector has seen in the XI Plan, much has changed with respect to the entire endeavour of power capacity addition.

In olden days, setting up of thermal power plants was more of a slow-moving tripartite activity between Central government agencies, state electricity boards and Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd. The public sector bastion is now demolished with private sector participation seen across the board—ownership of power plants, supply of equipment, EPC contracting, O&M etc.

Untitled - 33.jpgState owned power generation companies will gradually move out of the activity of setting up power plants, but instead award projects to the private sector through tariffbased competitive bidding. State utilities will also enter into long-term power supply agreements, again using the competitive bidding route. The growing involvement of private sector is therefore inevitable and so is the subdued role that state government entities will play in ownership of power plants. When one looks at the 51,536 mw of thermal power capacity currently under construction and likely to commission in the XII Plan period, only 22 per cent is in the state sector while 62 per cent is private.

In the foreseeable future, thermal power capacity of around 12,000 mw will get added per year. This will certainly bring about some relief to power shortages and peak power deficit. On the other hand, the focus will then shift, and should necessarily so, to efficient operation of power plants. Issues like fuel management—mainly securing coal linkages—will come to the fore. Considering that India's thermal power capacity would have doubled during the decade ending 2017, the country would need expertise in operations and maintenance of power plants. Besides, considerable efficiencies will have to be brought about in power transmission and distribution.The mission of energizing a nation starts with the setting up of a power generation plant. While there are several links ahead in the power chain, it is reassuring that India is taking its first step very confidently.

SELECT MEGA THERMAL POWER PROJECTS UNDER CONSTRUCTION*
Promoter Ownership Project Location MW BTG Supplier
Tata Power Private Mundra UMPP Gujarat 4,000 Doosan, Toshiba
Reliance Power Private Krishnapatnam UMPP Andhra Pradesh 4,000 SEC (China)
Reliance Power Private Sasan UMPP Gujarat 3,960 SEC (China)
Jindal Power Private Raigarh Chhattisgarh 2,400 BHEL
NTPC Central Barh-I Bihar 1,980 Technoprom, Russia
Mahagenco State Koradi Maharashtra 1,980 L&T
Jaiprakash Group Private Prayagraj Uttar Pradesh 1,980 BHEL
APGenco+IL&FS State Krishnapatnam Andhra Pradesh 1,600 BHEL, L&T-MHI
Elena Power (IndiaBulls) Private Nashik Maharashtra 1,350 BHEL
Elena Power (IndiaBulls) Private Amravati Maharashtra 1,350 BHEL
NTPC Central Barh-II Bihar 1,320 BHEL
Jaiprakash Group Private Nigrie Madhya Pradesh 1,320 BHEL
RRVUNL State Kalisindh Rajasthan 1,200 BGR Energy
MPPGCL State Malwa Madhya Pradesh 1,200 BHEL
Essar Power Private Salaya Gujarat 1,200 Harbin (China)
Essar Power Private Mahan Madhya Pradesh 1,200 Harbin (China)
CLP India Private Jhajjar Haryana 1,200 Sepco III (China)
Jindal India Thermal Power Private Derang Orissa 1,200 BHEL
Coastal Energen Private Tuticorin Tamil Nadu 1,200 Harbin (China)
Monnet Power Private Malibrahmani Orissa 1,050 BHEL
GMR Energy Private Kamalanga Orissa 1,050 Sepco III (China)
*Expected to fully commission in XII Plan period
 
                 
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